Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7675f32b47fb25de3ea66eb4ebcfaec38356feb2d2ed315a30f30b85912be787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,715 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 558.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 16c | 385.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 14c | 277.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Yes | 16c | 215.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 29c | 215.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 205.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 8c | 203.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 189.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 20c | 174.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 7c | 171.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 14c | 155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 15c | 136.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 22c | 131$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…c467backed Yes | 32c | 126.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 13c | 110.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 17c | 104.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 10c | 100.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 100.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 94.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…0cafbacked Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 17c | 90.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 20c | 83.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 76.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 73.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 64.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 78c | 64.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 76c | 45.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 23.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed No | 77c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.