Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9cc66ed6ee6d6b6c050cd92ddf6726d30f2a400cd81726e2e7ffa3b53fb1dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof paiN Gaming, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4514…4c39backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 3,221$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…959abacked Aurora | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked paiN Gaming | 12c | 2,300$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.68 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 2,140$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Aurora | 78c | 1,555$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 77c | 1,301$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.75 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 1,287$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.01 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked paiN Gaming | 23c | 1,013$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.07 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…0ac6backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming | 22c | 927.4$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.31 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Aurora | 76c | 789.47$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.47 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…70f6backed Aurora | 77c | 742.32$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked paiN Gaming | 18c | 684.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed paiN Gaming | 35c | 557.65$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.06 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked Aurora | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked paiN Gaming | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed Aurora | 76c | 498.07$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.07 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Aurora | 76c | 478.9$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 410.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 402.64$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6c…88d9backed Aurora | 76c | 352.21$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Aurora | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked paiN Gaming | 24c | 336.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…4b3fbacked paiN Gaming | 28c | 318.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed paiN Gaming | 11c | 307$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Aurora | 79c | 275.07$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…e3a9backed Aurora | 74c | 269.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…456fbacked Aurora | 77c | 268.26$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 231$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Aurora | 75c | 221.33$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…c33cbacked Aurora | 76c | 210$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 207.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Aurora | 76c | 204.73$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Aurora | 78c | 188$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Aurora | 76c | 179.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Aurora | 76c | 170.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 78c | 164.78$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Aurora | 74c | 163.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…02bbbacked Aurora | 60c | 162.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Aurora | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN Gaming | 24c | 151.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Aurora | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Aurora | 52c | 128.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…030ebacked Aurora | 77c | 126$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…cd44backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 126$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed paiN Gaming | 32c | 114.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Aurora | 75c | 106.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed paiN Gaming | 30c | 106.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…03cbbacked paiN Gaming | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked paiN Gaming | 10c | 102.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed paiN Gaming | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +8.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked paiN Gaming | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked paiN Gaming | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed paiN Gaming | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9cf5backed paiN Gaming | 28c | 99.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming | 17c | 90.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa973…9b4dbacked Aurora | 76c | 87.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked paiN Gaming | 16c | 84.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Aurora | 76c | 80.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 73.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Aurora | 77c | 72.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed paiN Gaming | 31c | 71.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Aurora | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked Aurora | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa787…a9d1backed paiN Gaming | 18c | 64.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Aurora | 75c | 63.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Aurora | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Aurora | 78c | 59.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…ccefbacked Aurora | 77c | 59.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…6c2abacked Aurora | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…ced0backed Aurora | 77c | 54.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Aurora | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Aurora | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d9…973ebacked paiN Gaming | 36c | 50.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Aurora | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Aurora | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked paiN Gaming | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Aurora | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Aurora | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Aurora | 76c | 49.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Aurora | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…ee29backed Aurora | 77c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Aurora | 77c | 38.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…34babacked Aurora | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…19cdbacked Aurora | 77c | 29.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…97b2backed Aurora | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…41f8backed Aurora | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…0a66backed Aurora | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Aurora | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…d96fbacked Aurora | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…8b07backed Aurora | 79c | 21.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…1f75backed Aurora | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Aurora | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…f07ebacked Aurora | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3923…f253backed Aurora | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Aurora | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed Aurora | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.