Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13028276052cf796db1ae9339917f34bc85590cc09b4e5d1bf8a6df05110869d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof paiN Gaming, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 11,895$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.61 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked paiN Gaming | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Aurora | 79c | 3,888$3,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.48 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Aurora | 78c | 3,336$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.32 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming | 19c | 2,991$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.22 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Aurora | 78c | 2,612$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.61 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 2,184$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.06 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 23c | 1,586$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.88 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 75c | 1,005$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.36 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 865.71$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked paiN Gaming | 24c | 799.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed paiN Gaming | 6c | 704.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked paiN Gaming | 39c | 548.06$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Aurora | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Aurora | 76c | 442.02$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 77c | 395$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed paiN Gaming | 25c | 344.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked paiN Gaming | 20c | 297.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 75c | 246.53$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…2ed2backed Aurora | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 184.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…ee61backed Aurora | 78c | 182.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Aurora | 78c | 167.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 74c | 154.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 72c | 138.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 137.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…377cbacked Aurora | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…dc5abacked Aurora | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.45per pick | 25cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5c…a4fcbacked Aurora | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 28cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora | 79c | 80.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Aurora | 77c | 79.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 54.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 49.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…0a00backed Aurora | 78c | 49.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…4c25backed Aurora | 80c | 47.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…7eb2backed Aurora | 79c | 45.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Aurora | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…b8d2backed Aurora | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…6dbabacked Aurora | 79c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee9…d29abacked Aurora | 78c | 22.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…38eabacked Aurora | 76c | 22.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…a312backed Aurora | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.