Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7013051bea6ea5f7ae4e07535a664b62aeaed8ff9d1548f20bc4e2014e719bcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof paiN Gaming, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 7,573$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.41 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 78c | 6,998$5,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.25 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked paiN Gaming | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Aurora | 80c | 3,277$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.48 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming | 16c | 3,044$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.87 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 2,250$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 1,721$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.56 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed paiN Gaming | 17c | 1,613$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.82 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked paiN Gaming | 16c | 1,349$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.92 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked paiN Gaming | 22c | 1,300$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 1,220$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.51 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed paiN Gaming | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Aurora | 78c | 800$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.4 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 791.6$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.97 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed paiN Gaming | 32c | 781.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Aurora | 78c | 758.28$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 79c | 691.86$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.17 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 599.8$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 570.64$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 75c | 445$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 79c | 420$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed paiN Gaming | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Aurora | 77c | 323$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 78c | 315$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 16c | 258.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Aurora | 70c | 218.72$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked paiN Gaming | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed paiN Gaming | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aurora | 77c | 199.52$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora | 67c | 152.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked paiN Gaming | 31c | 146$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 772 | 58.5%452 W · 320 L | +74.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 142.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…b8d2backed paiN Gaming | 41c | 122.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed paiN Gaming | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 96.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming | 18c | 91.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Aurora | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…0799backed Aurora | 76c | 74.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 28c | 69.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…4758backed Aurora | 79c | 67.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Aurora | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed paiN Gaming | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…804dbacked paiN Gaming | 31c | 47.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…a0c7backed Aurora | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.