Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x194e6bf2e7bea0fdc4ada3e0949b28ddae4b66182cd7315fb2505b2323ca101f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 663.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 2c | 656.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 4c | 571.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 303.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.27 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 25c | 286.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.15 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 223.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.49 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked Yes | 12c | 208.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 18c | 200.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.03 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 192.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 17c | 139.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 21c | 106.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 105.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 104.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 98.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 19c | 87.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 23c | 87.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 18c | 82.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 14c | 79.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 58c | 78.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 78.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 46c | 76.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 19c | 75.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 25c | 75.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 68.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 17c | 67.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 33c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 63.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 63c | 62.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes | 20c | 60.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 75c | 58.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 55.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 18c | 55.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 31c | 45.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 54c | 45.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 47c | 41.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 38.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 80c | 37.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 39c | 32.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 30.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 28.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 64c | 25.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…34b1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 70c | 24.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 53c | 23.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd68a…fdc0backed No | 68c | 21.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 66c | 20.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 80c | 20.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 64c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 42°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.