Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 42°F or higher on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa565707648ff322307a83af4a2d89c5e1797625988341964c444379aff2a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 344.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 257.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 55c | 247.57$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 8c | 238.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 21c | 219.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 56c | 187.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b0…bbaebacked Yes | 71c | 122.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 19c | 98.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 83.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 33c | 72.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 71.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 79c | 71.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed No | 19c | 60.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 38c | 60.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked No | 34c | 59.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed80…0022backed No | 49c | 57.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 52c | 56.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 19c | 56.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 19c | 56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 55.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 50c | 54.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 26c | 47.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 43c | 46.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed Yes | 78c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed Yes | 80c | 42.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 26c | 42.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed Yes | 74c | 41.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…4161backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 38.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…9ab6backed No | 29c | 38.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…df74backed No | 42c | 36.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…19c6backed Yes | 73c | 34.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 33.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 66c | 33.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 58c | 33.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 75c | 33.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 70c | 31.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed Yes | 74c | 30.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 42c | 27.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 47c | 24.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 61c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 63c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…34b1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…6340backed Yes | 71c | 16.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 74c | 14.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 79c | 12.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 42°F or higher on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.