Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0968e0b1a4156a48b38f47607407bf0b1f27cf4e56c269d76f8907dfae2d98c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Flame Team, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 1,011$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.65 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 833.77$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.17 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Flame Team | 40c | 779.36$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.81 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…1071backed Spirit Academy | 58c | 684.15$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21de…506ebacked Flame Team | 45c | 305.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6505…1feebacked Flame Team | 53c | 284.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spirit Academy | 63c | 259.01$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Spirit Academy | 47c | 209$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 161.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…dcedbacked Flame Team | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Flame Team | 59c | 155.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Flame Team | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…1e8fbacked Flame Team | 75c | 148.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 39c | 144.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Flame Team | 58c | 140.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked Spirit Academy | 28c | 130.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 123.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Flame Team | 51c | 123.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flame Team | 36c | 117.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd12…0b88backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 101.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Flame Team | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51b…d260backed Flame Team | 58c | 96.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Spirit Academy | 61c | 80.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Flame Team | 42c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Flame Team | 42c | 73.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flame Team | 39c | 72.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 53.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Flame Team | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Flame Team | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Flame Team | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Flame Team | 73c | 47.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 42.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…5f2abacked Spirit Academy | 62c | 40.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed Flame Team | 76c | 38.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Flame Team | 38c | 31.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Flame Team | 56c | 28.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…6ff2backed Spirit Academy | 64c | 28.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba7…1bc2backed Flame Team | 76c | 21.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Spirit Academy | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Flame Team | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.