Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17afc534dedffc3e125b194278175859645532a5d12e8ca28da63cafd0701c79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Flame Team, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed Flame Team | 28c | 2,483$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.39 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team | 1c | 2,219$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Flame Team | 69c | 1,464$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.65 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…fc55backed Flame Team | 3c | 935.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 818.39$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.39 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Flame Team | 31c | 728.79$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.67 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 508.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.36 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Spirit Academy | 23c | 506.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.24 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Flame Team | 38c | 503.69$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Flame Team | 61c | 492.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.24 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 465.26$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.99 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…e21fbacked Spirit Academy | 54c | 439.51$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.22 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Flame Team | 48c | 399.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.79 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked Flame Team | 62c | 329.95$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.57 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Flame Team | 65c | 304.31$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.52 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 301.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.45 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Flame Team | 27c | 299.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 241$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Flame Team | 67c | 229$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Flame Team | 39c | 218.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 198.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 190.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Flame Team | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 36c | 181.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…0d40backed Flame Team | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Flame Team | 68c | 150.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Spirit Academy | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Spirit Academy | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Spirit Academy | 19c | 129.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Spirit Academy | 79c | 122$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Spirit Academy | 14c | 117.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 62c | 105.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Spirit Academy | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Flame Team | 47c | 95.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 90.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Spirit Academy | 38c | 75.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Spirit Academy | 19c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Flame Team | 58c | 68.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Flame Team | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Flame Team | 45c | 58.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Flame Team | 69c | 45.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Flame Team | 36c | 42.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Flame Team | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Flame Team | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…cb84backed Flame Team | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Flame Team | 61c | 29.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Flame Team | 43c | 29.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed Spirit Academy | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 22.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 21.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5319…d626backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.