TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spirit Academyof Flame Team, Spirit Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,431 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Spirit Academy45c5,000$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.4747646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Spirit Academy60c3,915$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.2251049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Spirit Academy17c3,386$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.7421155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy16c3,159$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.0948057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Flame Team70c1,661$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.391,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Spirit Academy36c1,270$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.7931055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Spirit Academy35c1,220$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.7558356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Flame Team61c1,031$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.448053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked Flame Team75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Flame Team55c990.91$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54519547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Flame Team58c964.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.6815639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Flame Team69c953.25$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.272,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flame Team55c722$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.62,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed Flame Team55c663.76$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.072157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Spirit Academy38c599.99$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.9437655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Spirit Academy14c559.63$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.2828336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Spirit Academy38c536.32$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.321,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy38c532.83$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.831,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x245d…3b90backed Spirit Academy49c476$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.095735.1%20 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Flame Team58c470.72$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.981,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed Flame Team64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015848.1%76 W · 82 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Flame Team74c451.3$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.1934041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Spirit Academy35c334.06$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5257449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Flame Team55c319.32$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6313645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Flame Team64c313.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20072154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba01…1a89backed Flame Team64c304.84$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.15244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Flame Team55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16514048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60f1…aa80backed Flame Team54c281.53$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.221338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Flame Team52c276.3$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5114943%64 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Flame Team55c235.05$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.273953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Flame Team48c235$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2896245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Flame Team75c221.38$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.428645.3%39 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Flame Team68c197.73$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.951,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Spirit Academy45c187.86$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8620442.2%86 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…c533backed Flame Team64c177.72$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.746163.9%39 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked Spirit Academy29c155.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.178153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Spirit Academy64c155.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1519251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Flame Team60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed Flame Team70c142$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.26271%44 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Flame Team75c140$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Flame Team51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7054648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…a117backed Flame Team73c136.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.121711.8%2 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-82.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xca78…b3a8backed Flame Team47c130$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Flame Team55c119.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8910933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Spirit Academy28c107.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.144942.9%21 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Flame Team71c105.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7573554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Spirit Academy29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7113647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Flame Team25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Flame Team53c91.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.768847.7%42 W · 46 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215b…69f1backed Flame Team75c91.16$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14c8…c192backed Flame Team55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Flame Team64c84.05$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7123459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Flame Team77c70$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8317443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Flame Team52c67.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.178516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy22c66.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2981345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf438…9901backed Spirit Academy66c60.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.24228.6%12 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Flame Team56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Spirit Academy23c56.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3419449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d28…ad7cbacked Spirit Academy24c50.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.533920.5%8 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team61c47.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8238244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Flame Team68c46.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3691553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Flame Team61c46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.064337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Flame Team61c46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0625351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy39c45.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9838759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11ee…e6c6backed Spirit Academy46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Flame Team60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e99…2229backed Flame Team64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258736.8%32 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc29c…1e43backed Flame Team61c32.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204250%21 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Flame Team69c28.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8815342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41b3…a28dbacked Flame Team78c27.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0714…e504backed Spirit Academy41c26.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Flame Team61c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.864742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbf…d227backed Flame Team66c25.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5319…d626backed Flame Team67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Flame Team61c24.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2442639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed Spirit Academy55c23.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6242660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Flame Team64c21.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147851.3%40 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Flame Team79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.844474.8%332 W · 112 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4270…6168backed Flame Team67c19.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.782352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…ab36backed Flame Team73c16.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.