Token Launches · resolved market
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6883cbd51b944a8dad5939e5b8a37c27bfcae3bd90701e7ebca1eb54c6d510ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 13c | 16,285$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.63 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c23…c465backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ceb…60a3backed Yes | 24c | 5,350$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…bea0backed Yes | 8c | 4,774$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…d90abacked Yes | 23c | 3,843$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -78%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…806bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,821$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.88 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed No | 75c | 2,710$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,694$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.12 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 15c | 2,597$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.7 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…6640backed Yes | 15c | 2,456$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…0f9bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,403$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…5985backed Yes | 13c | 2,390$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…9362backed Yes | 16c | 2,192$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.27 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +93%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…df23backed Yes | 9c | 1,958$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,716$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8571…edefbacked Yes | 10c | 1,700$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed Yes | 18c | 1,681$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…a7cabacked No | 76c | 1,585$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…d5c6backed No | 77c | 1,444$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 14c | 1,440$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…a240backed No | 77c | 1,423$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516b…5822backed No | 78c | 1,398$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 75c | 1,318$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.34 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 22c | 1,300$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 58c | 1,300$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.35 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…398fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,208$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7383…4e68backed Yes | 6c | 1,197$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0b…3d79backed Yes | 9c | 1,131$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…c579backed No | 78c | 1,100$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 1,041$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,022$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…303fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,019$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…ce13backed Yes | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…3047backed Yes | 23c | 961.04$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…a8adbacked Yes | 8c | 949$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked Yes | 26c | 909.89$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.1 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 20c | 900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 48c | 876$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.82 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d23…70febacked No | 80c | 858.75$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 1c | 836.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…875abacked Yes | 49c | 795.92$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 767.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…3d15backed Yes | 8c | 702$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6663backed Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…1456backed Yes | 8c | 698$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 10c | 656.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…dd35backed Yes | 8c | 653$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…8795backed Yes | 9c | 636$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…f52bbacked Yes | 16c | 590$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 24c | 574.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aec…a376backed No | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 46c | 517.94$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.77 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf019…bcd4backed Yes | 10c | 507.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 75c | 501.99$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…e1d4backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed Yes | 23c | 482.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7a…b661backed Yes | 8c | 480$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…b7a2backed Yes | 8c | 475$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 61c | 473.88$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.89 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd5…112bbacked Yes | 19c | 450$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…d4e3backed No | 77c | 441.56$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…3dcfbacked Yes | 8c | 437$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…fa58backed No | 80c | 431.21$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd5…6a0dbacked No | 77c | 429.35$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 11c | 421.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…ad8ebacked No | 80c | 416.21$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 17c | 402$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 80c | 401.94$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 388.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 5c | 366.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 52c | 340.5$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 315.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 13c | 315$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 73c | 311.1$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…88b8backed No | 75c | 305.11$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…c9a2backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1,138.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…363cbacked Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 278.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…ce09backed Yes | 10c | 275$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 78c | 255.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 26c | 247$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 7c | 232$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…a3a3backed Yes | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…a166backed No | 76c | 222$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked Yes | 42c | 206.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…b56cbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…d9cdbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…3cb8backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…2dd4backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 12c | 199.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 195.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…e40fbacked Yes | 16c | 190.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…fd58backed No | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.