TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe8de…e1d4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: La Liga, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT4637%17 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$612Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$588
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$104.32
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+144.8%+$236.6
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+514.6%+$167.46
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+196.2%+$298.07
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$565Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+75%+$423.36
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$122.3
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$102
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+300%+$60
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+175.3%+$70.11
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+146.8%+$135.36
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+31.7%+$63.34
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.33per pick51cpaid-76.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$23.35
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$38.44
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$172
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-58.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$743Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+88.5%+$657.46
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick31cpaid+227.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+227.9%+$69.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.