TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$269,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x378a…a638backed No0c52,198$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7353…4b0dbacked No0c30,890$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-78.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No1c20,000$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe176…7f65backed Yes67c13,385$8,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed No2c11,000$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8918…8824backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…f099backed No0c9,799$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No50c8,520$4,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,244.981580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No0c7,584$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.59450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+268.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No2c7,003$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.851040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+85.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No32c5,111$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.044723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick28cpaid+144.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes39c4,999$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059580%4 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.53per pick27cpaid+350.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6eef…bd6bbacked No0c4,506$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e8…9c25backed No0c4,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed No2c3,555$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.77250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+9,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45bc…77f5backed No1c3,485$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b8…447abacked No0c3,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes58c3,003$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.412290.9%20 W · 2 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+68.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc975…2c68backed No3c2,513$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes55c2,287$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No1c2,120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…a8f4backed No2c1,956$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No39c1,808$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.592733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c3…0172backed No3c1,728$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+733.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb0…acccbacked No2c1,688$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c8…a928backed No1c1,607$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes35c1,134$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.313043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No2c1,066$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.76137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No6c1,038$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No5c978.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4873…b9c2backed No2c919$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.06944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick20cpaid+296.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5612…10b0backed No70c847.91$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.79540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea6b…d5abbacked No3c800.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c5…728bbacked No1c768.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.94757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e4…dfc2backed No44c700$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3081566.7%10 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+683.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6593…eba2backed No1c683.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes58c529.97$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…2914backed Yes32c527.4$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes31c500$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick32cpaid+155.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No42c468.44$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.74580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No42c405.98$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.311050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No43c363.62$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.982123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes56c338.87$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.335345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes28c337.21$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.3128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe350…c0c8backed No34c328.5$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.281050%5 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+49.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc13b…f908backed Yes49c323.68$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.583100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+285.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes43c300.66$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a7e…f25fbacked No49c288.47$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8de…e1d4backed No6c265.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes64c247.5$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.951872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+53.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No39c246.59$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973778.4%29 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Yes53c231$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes31c227.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.751060%6 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+101.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3068…083dbacked No67c222.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.841080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+79.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No57c222$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.541513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes58c220$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0385…7ffabacked No55c210.32$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.41457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eab…9eaebacked No48c208.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No39c204.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.091968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No62c200$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa448…9eeebacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0a9…0fdcbacked No54c199.74$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.451241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes52c174.55$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.781560%9 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+196.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0cd5…bf27backed Yes57c165.98$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Yes58c158$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Yes58c158$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes34c154.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.472128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes61c147.94$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick33cpaid+339.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed No60c143.75$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes40c134$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.892347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No79c133.97$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.843327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c1c…0b5fbacked No9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+50.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed No43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b6…1fdabacked No47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Yes53c103$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Yes51c102$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+159.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bf1…0089backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.791030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…50b7backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No66c95.94$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.562445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…bdb5backed Yes22c81.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+128.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13bb…c279backed Yes16c80$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x139c…bc2abacked No63c79.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No68c73.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-72.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb12c…fae5backed No43c71.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Yes56c71.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+126.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes52c70.18$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.694725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd570…b90abacked Yes59c65.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.05580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed No47c64.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes56c61.89$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.091464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x768a…4f50backed No35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.76580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+110.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97ff…d970backed No51c59.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes28c55.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.071323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c54.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.182524%6 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No35c53.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.565211.5%6 W · 46 L-11.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd30c…ada7backed Yes58c52.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes68c51.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.651833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.