China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11e9e8362c3b3142fd865bab844892561d4b8473cd1b0d612a02b60a0a7a934e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 6,236$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.81 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 2c | 947.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 13c | 924.16$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 67c | 717.74$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.01 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 15c | 540.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ad…dab1backed Yes | 6c | 403.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 75c | 398.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 21c | 391.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 10c | 323.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…d3aebacked Yes | 7c | 268.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…1f5cbacked Yes | 39c | 258.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa898…71c1backed Yes | 18c | 252.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…893cbacked Yes | 15c | 197.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.47per pick | 17cpaid | +365.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 29c | 179.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 21c | 171.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 73c | 158.69$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 32c | 157.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 36c | 114.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 71c | 101.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…71b5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9da…9a0cbacked No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…46b6backed No | 72c | 98.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 69c | 82.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2e…d3cabacked Yes | 22c | 70.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf698…e3e1backed Yes | 30c | 67.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.41per pick | 52cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…0ce6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c05…11a8backed Yes | 39c | 51.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4265…3741backed Yes | 27c | 45.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked No | 78c | 44.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6c…9112backed Yes | 31c | 42.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb122…c903backed No | 59c | 39.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…403fbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2315…a6b1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0875…ceacbacked No | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…641bbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…05a8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked No | 69c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.