TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6872…876fbacked Yes1c8,547$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.46205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c6,334$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.694725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes6c5,481$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.6290%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80aa…e8eabacked No1c3,445$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,417.532100%2 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+15,809.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes6c3,125$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.46293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x604a…d5f8backed Yes5c2,022$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes5c2,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.07911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc433…d38ebacked Yes3c1,445$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef22…8c02backed Yes11c1,210$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes8c1,192$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes9c1,171$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4047…b217backed Yes5c1,042$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No49c949$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.631315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes6c922.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.88911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8676…42d0backed Yes4c841.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed No3c830.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.083100%3 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+2,084.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c781.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4bb…f93ebacked Yes7c764.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed No50c657.71$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes3c655$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf504…b97bbacked Yes15c652.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed No74c581.33$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bff…83a7backed Yes9c576$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes3c572.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes6c509.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+82.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4580%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes8c499.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8982…af89backed Yes7c499.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+251.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2588…22a3backed Yes5c473.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac50…45aebacked Yes3c456.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf128…d77fbacked Yes5c456.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed Yes3c405.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d34…6aacbacked Yes7c402.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c4…c005backed Yes5c401.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa652…b069backed Yes5c385.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes13c359.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No64c314$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.042128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes5c309.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.141650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Yes6c299.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8168…90e7backed No54c282.06$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.061040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed1f…893cbacked No5c279.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.47per pick17cpaid+365.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xbdcb…a61bbacked Yes7c271.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8295…610cbacked Yes7c270.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes8c244.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.461513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes15c241.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.38633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c9…f7b8backed Yes7c240.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe80…9528backed Yes7c228.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c226.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.09563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c225.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.491277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5197…0ce6backed Yes9c221.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes22c220.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.13650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes6c219.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.28per pick34cpaid-91.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x85b9…b428backed Yes5c218.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes55c209.95$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes8c207.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.572290.9%20 W · 2 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+68.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Yes26c206.27$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.871315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf93…6e4fbacked No78c188.95$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b91…a535backed Yes6c187.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b7…57a8backed Yes9c171.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5202…7975backed Yes9c169.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.370%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2116…eb8fbacked No13c157.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+502.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe18…d3a0backed Yes10c147.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes27c139.94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.17450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+173.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97d4…2b61backed Yes10c121.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6d…76f5backed Yes11c119.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd8…6fd7backed Yes14c108.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…57a6backed Yes10c101.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04b…c55fbacked Yes10c101.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6436…da96backed No76c79.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No54c54.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.033778.4%29 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed No45c51.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.141250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf198…e064backed No43c48.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes52c34.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.21875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c3…0c7ebacked No78c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No44c27.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.38137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe8…6d0abacked No48c26.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad8…a420backed No63c23.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc79…28e2backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked No72c15.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.43966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No69c14.96$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621275%9 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.