China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb81de4a6bb4824380460f92d7a6901e407e7c4558bac7451b0d26bc8873bfa54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 8,085$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…381cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,851$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked Yes | 2c | 4,157$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,120$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,468$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.51 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,634$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.74 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 64c | 1,354$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.32 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…9b0abacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…c700backed Yes | 40c | 904.91$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 40c | 860.54$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.8 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +5.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +216%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 35c | 832.66$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 69c | 728.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.84 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 36c | 715.89$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.89 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 43cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0aed…feacbacked Yes | 60c | 658.59$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 18c | 625$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb748…dbddbacked Yes | 67c | 596.34$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4456…6aacbacked No | 71c | 559.18$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed No | 65c | 549.44$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.56 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0132…c5fabacked Yes | 2c | 531.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7d…399cbacked Yes | 43c | 510.65$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…3999backed No | 67c | 506.07$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 35c | 500$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x301e…b192backed Yes | 65c | 500$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…7c43backed Yes | 44c | 465.2$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed No | 34c | 453.23$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaf…20c0backed Yes | 45c | 439.73$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Yes | 53c | 375.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.2wins | -0.52per pick | 65cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed No | 70c | 354.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 43c | 348$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…0cf6backed Yes | 6c | 336.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 320.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…c0c8backed No | 41c | 315.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 20c | 314$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 60c | 301$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…a704backed No | 79c | 294.92$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c75…6e43backed No | 74c | 294.34$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 43c | 293.17$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.17 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 18c | 291.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 279.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 63c | 273.63$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 66c | 262.67$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 40c | 260$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed No | 77c | 245.15$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…eca8backed Yes | 41c | 244.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed Yes | 24c | 239.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 58c | 222.35$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…47b6backed Yes | 47c | 211.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -5.1wins | -0.47per pick | 56cpaid | -88%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 75c | 204.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked No | 60c | 199.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +284.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed No | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 50c | 199.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 51c | 199.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bd…ff97backed Yes | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 50c | 179.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed No | 52c | 171.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 24c | 169.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 68c | 156.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed No | 67c | 153.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…3ea6backed No | 64c | 152.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Yes | 31c | 150.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bf…7780backed No | 51c | 148.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 55c | 147.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 32c | 146.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…237ebacked Yes | 35c | 144.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…0db7backed No | 71c | 140.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…09c7backed Yes | 36c | 139.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 136.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…3b93backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 23c | 129.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 126.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 67c | 119.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.41per pick | 52cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…c005backed Yes | 37c | 108.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…5f01backed No | 36c | 104.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 48cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5da…ff1dbacked Yes | 30c | 101.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…ccfabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ab07backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…9128backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…c2f2backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77c…ad9bbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6b…53b2backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 49c | 99.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…5649backed Yes | 43c | 92.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 56c | 92.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.46per pick | 43cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…c462backed No | 55c | 89.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…8f34backed Yes | 36c | 83.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…5de2backed Yes | 63c | 79.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 46c | 76.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…0cedbacked No | 67c | 74.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…8767backed Yes | 34c | 73.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 67c | 73.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…03b0backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.