TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c8,085$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.54725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5741…381cbacked Yes0c6,851$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d0…b8ddbacked Yes2c4,157$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes3c4,120$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.67205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes11c2,468$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.514723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes29c1,634$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.74293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No64c1,354$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.321580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd9c…9b0abacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2c…c700backed Yes40c904.91$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.1340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No40c860.54$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.810100%10 W · 0 L+5.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+216%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes35c832.66$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.881414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-75.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No69c728.84$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.841872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes36c715.89$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.89128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.35per pick43cpaid-85.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0aed…feacbacked Yes60c658.59$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes18c625$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb748…dbddbacked Yes67c596.34$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4456…6aacbacked No71c559.18$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5b…5d41backed No65c549.44$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.561586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.1wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+70%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0132…c5fabacked Yes2c531.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a7d…399cbacked Yes43c510.65$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d6…3999backed No67c506.07$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+109.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No35c500$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+152.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x301e…b192backed Yes65c500$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x526e…7c43backed Yes44c465.2$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.711030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-56.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed No34c453.23$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.13714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaaf…20c0backed Yes45c439.73$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19980%0 W · 8 L-4.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Yes53c375.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-4.2wins-0.52per pick65cpaid-84.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed No70c354.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.991050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No43c348$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.36887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x82e2…0cf6backed Yes6c336.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes11c320.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.071612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe350…c0c8backed No41c315.33$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.041050%5 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+49.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes20c314$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.82128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No60c301$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.372080%16 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd6e…a704backed No79c294.92$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c75…6e43backed No74c294.34$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.54425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-66.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No43c293.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.173778.4%29 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Yes18c291.26$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c279.67$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.732733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No63c273.63$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.361513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No66c262.67$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.031275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes40c260$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e14…86f0backed No77c245.15$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b7…eca8backed Yes41c244.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Yes24c239.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.690%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked No58c222.35$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.261637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d5…47b6backed Yes47c211.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-5.1wins-0.47per pick56cpaid-88%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No75c204.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0911100%11 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc9d5…d1bbbacked No60c199.99$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+284.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe215…a3d9backed No34c199.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+133.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No50c199.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.99988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+87.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No51c199.96$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96bd…ff97backed Yes57c180$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes50c179.14$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.761833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd697…def2backed No52c171.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-3.9wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Yes24c169.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No68c156.61$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.721376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+79.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a3c…4b61backed No67c153.63$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…3ea6backed No64c152.17$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.659100%9 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7353…4b0dbacked Yes31c150.55$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.67911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-78.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1bf…7780backed No51c148.05$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.05450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed No55c147.46$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.731573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No32c146.32$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+70.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e22…237ebacked Yes35c144.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e3…0db7backed No71c140.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1874…09c7backed Yes36c139.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c136.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.612524%6 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1bf7…3b93backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes23c129.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.872123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c126.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.452347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No67c119.25$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.251392.3%12 W · 1 L+5.3wins+0.41per pick52cpaid+106.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa0c4…c005backed Yes37c108.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7597…5f01backed No36c104.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.41per pick48cpaid+92.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd5da…ff1dbacked Yes30c101.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b44…ccfabacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba68…ab07backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25b3…9128backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.41225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8386…c2f2backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd77c…ad9bbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6b…53b2backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4860%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No49c99.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.963444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bba…5649backed Yes43c92.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No56c92.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.681090%9 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.35per pick55cpaid+85.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.46per pick43cpaid+140.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xba0d…c462backed No55c89.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Yes24c85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88e4…8f34backed Yes36c83.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes37c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.670%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c97…5de2backed Yes63c79.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7560%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes46c76.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.421127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca4c…0cedbacked No67c74.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92c4…8767backed Yes34c73.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed No67c73.27$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.261872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+53.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No32c72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.966933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13f4…03b0backed Yes28c71.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.