TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,195

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c4,146$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.144725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x411a…5a86backed Yes2c2,293$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes38c1,507$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No62c1,082$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.4711100%11 W · 0 L+5.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+413.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No59c978.32$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.211580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes33c837.42$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c830$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes18c785.67$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.891963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes23c710.11$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.121414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-75.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No59c594.96$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.972584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed No60c438.48$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.261573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes5c437.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.514723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes28c399.85$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.94293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes46c375.37$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes9c324$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.161315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa0…5a01backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a2…e17dbacked No78c289.43$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes11c270.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc84f…e0c5backed No77c265.04$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c256.92$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.045345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes41c230.84$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.643327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes36c226.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.722128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No64c205.86$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.111833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No59c199.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.073444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes43c199.69$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.871637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes37c171.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.632347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f8…a031backed Yes39c169.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No57c168.43$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.421580%12 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+47.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb75…27a3backed Yes46c163.74$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.380%0 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked No58c150.53$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.31070%7 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.35per pick35cpaid+79.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No59c150$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.881353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+152.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c140.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.926933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf060…b07abacked Yes20c137.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd5…e4f3backed No74c135.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c81…ff3dbacked Yes22c133.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x829c…e098backed Yes30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafc9…4256backed Yes39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd712…df34backed Yes23c126.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Yes21c119.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.260%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes28c109.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+166.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No62c102$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.861190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.41per pick50cpaid+117.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.28per pick34cpaid-91.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe5c7…31ccbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7e…f25fbacked No54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.59887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4140…f4bbbacked No54c92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes46c84.73$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.972433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e21…04ffbacked No60c82.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.861833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No58c73.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.93778.4%29 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xeb7b…5032backed Yes43c73.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8540%0 W · 4 L-2.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f93…b91fbacked Yes48c73.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ed…a1a0backed Yes43c67.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf33…0d65backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd0…a134backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb12d…c5bcbacked Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9480…e243backed Yes18c59.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252c…d5b4backed Yes44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…d92dbacked Yes23c56.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f8…e72ebacked Yes19c54.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2947…4cf4backed No59c50.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+60.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x662a…f9b7backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8d…29eebacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ab…ecf7backed Yes40c49.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick62cpaid-75.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No59c49.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.11580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No60c49.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed No53c46.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.97875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e32…29c3backed Yes23c46.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+56.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5197…0ce6backed Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ada…f987backed Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d8c…541cbacked Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9292…2cd1backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.230%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes41c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.581145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc01c…0f0fbacked Yes35c37.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac7…744dbacked No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0875…ceacbacked No58c34.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.62560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc6…01d3backed Yes41c33.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c9…8825backed No76c32.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No62c32.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.411450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610100%10 W · 0 L+5.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+216%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x76b3…3ffebacked No58c29.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No62c29.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5449…992bbacked No57c28.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa18…c710backed Yes37c28.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed No61c26.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.39955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b57…5089backed No72c25.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4282…3455backed No57c24.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+147.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd850…e26cbacked No78c23.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.267100%7 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No80c23.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.751376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+79.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x07e1…fbdabacked No73c21.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc4…4347backed No57c21.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.146100%6 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+156.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No68c21.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.723183.9%26 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5949…6d11backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c5…728bbacked No68c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb1e…a8ddbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.