China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3fdb3d677f12ea4d9e9dac9eed48d5ac6c522ddc2e3e9aa062819b0aae7f79a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 4,146$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…5a86backed Yes | 2c | 2,293$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 38c | 1,507$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 62c | 1,082$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.47 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +413.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 59c | 978.32$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.21 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 33c | 837.42$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 830$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 18c | 785.67$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 23c | 710.11$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 59c | 594.96$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.97 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 60c | 438.48$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 437.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 28c | 399.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 46c | 375.37$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 9c | 324$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…5a01backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked No | 78c | 289.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 11c | 270.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 77c | 265.04$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 256.92$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 41c | 230.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 36c | 226.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 64c | 205.86$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes | 43c | 199.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 37c | 171.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…a031backed Yes | 39c | 169.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 57c | 168.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 46c | 163.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 58c | 150.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 59c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 140.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Yes | 20c | 137.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…e4f3backed No | 74c | 135.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c81…ff3dbacked Yes | 22c | 133.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x829c…e098backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc9…4256backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…df34backed Yes | 23c | 126.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Yes | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 28c | 109.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 62c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 50cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.28per pick | 34cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c7…31ccbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…f25fbacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…f4bbbacked No | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 84.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked No | 60c | 82.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 58c | 73.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7b…5032backed Yes | 43c | 73.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…b91fbacked Yes | 48c | 73.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ed…a1a0backed Yes | 43c | 67.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…0d65backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…c5bcbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…e243backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…d5b4backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked Yes | 23c | 56.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…e72ebacked Yes | 19c | 54.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 59c | 50.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…f9b7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8d…29eebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…ecf7backed Yes | 40c | 49.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 59c | 49.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 60c | 49.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 53c | 46.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…29c3backed Yes | 23c | 46.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…0ce6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…f987backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…541cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01c…0f0fbacked Yes | 35c | 37.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0875…ceacbacked No | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc6…01d3backed Yes | 41c | 33.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…8825backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 62c | 32.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +5.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +216%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 62c | 29.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 57c | 28.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa18…c710backed Yes | 37c | 28.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 61c | 26.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…5089backed No | 72c | 25.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…3455backed No | 57c | 24.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 78c | 23.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…fbdabacked No | 73c | 21.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 57c | 21.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 21.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…6d11backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…728bbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…a8ddbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.