TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No53c8,936$4,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,188.381894.4%17 W · 1 L+7.5wins+0.42per pick53cpaid+107.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes4c7,722$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.544725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes4c6,403$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.37205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5741…381cbacked Yes1c6,356$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4bb…0c59backed No21c3,494$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+381.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No28c3,101$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.271154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick26cpaid+80.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacd1…0689backed Yes1c3,095$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No36c3,013$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.511353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+152.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No62c2,970$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.951963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No26c2,709$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.62584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes14c2,599$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6290%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No38c2,490$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.0611100%11 W · 0 L+5.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+413.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x40f2…a57cbacked Yes0c2,467$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314a…80f6backed Yes66c2,300$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No31c2,200$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5191833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ef…c56abacked Yes33c2,085$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.2960%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No21c2,000$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.96785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick47cpaid+117.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No27c1,924$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.76977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.36per pick42cpaid+103.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No16c1,842$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.510100%10 W · 0 L+5.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+216%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa7af…0158backed Yes37c1,615$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No43c1,606$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.221650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20c6…71d5backed No30c1,483$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+332%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x079f…28dfbacked Yes73c1,366$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes60c1,354$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.34293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x058f…4883backed Yes74c1,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No48c1,336$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e92…6929backed Yes40c1,297$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.9840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No66c1,251$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No71c1,125$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.551687.5%14 W · 2 L+6.9wins+0.43per pick44cpaid+154.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No71c1,100$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85b9…b428backed No46c1,097$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.071030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8048…a602backed Yes37c1,083$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fe…c701backed Yes73c1,035$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.6320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x407d…1baebacked No68c1,006$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.79475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+78.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked No25c997.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+349%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes42c982.26$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.351414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-75.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Yes34c968.45$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No41c956.76$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.563043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No72c883.42$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.421872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes14c876.35$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.632733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes68c859.74$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes31c834.74$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.47185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1028…8afcbacked Yes6c823.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes9c810.8$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.66137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No52c810.18$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.9411100%11 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x526e…7c43backed Yes42c810.05$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.361030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-56.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes39c809.51$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.034723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe350…c0c8backed No30c801.63$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.611050%5 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+49.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed No28c800.05$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.048100%8 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+192.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1690…9d6cbacked Yes13c782.31$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes3c762.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.78128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes14c717$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes73c699.98$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.98520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No31c691.5$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+158%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked No30c683.9$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.539100%9 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+135.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Yes78c642.1$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No26c628.38$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.132544%11 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes22c624.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes52c599.2$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.26128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.35per pick43cpaid-85.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No23c586.38$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.63988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.46per pick43cpaid+140.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes66c576.04$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3138…6361backed Yes5c570.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3000…9eb1backed Yes69c537.08$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.681118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e76…daf9backed No71c535.62$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No31c535.54$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.543778.4%29 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No64c516.78$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.432290.9%20 W · 2 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+68.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No26c510.47$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+176.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa74b…31b1backed Yes80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick61cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdd7…6497backed Yes77c500$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.53per pick73cpaid-74.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked No15c500$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.764100%4 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+471.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No48c492$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.71580%12 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+47.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2e90…f911backed Yes14c471.41$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e9…df4abacked Yes77c457.69$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes8c450$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked No44c449.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.51190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.31per pick60cpaid+62.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb65a…5acbbacked Yes68c443.52$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3669…0372backed Yes35c432.05$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes37c413.44$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ec9…ec5ebacked Yes30c413.39$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfeb…3365backed Yes80c400$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f8…a031backed Yes55c387.46$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.150%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc23…6043backed Yes78c383.12$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes63c372.07$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.143327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes55c366.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x878c…8c53backed Yes67c334.08$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3a1…3c87backed Yes62c329.98$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e7…a5c3backed Yes32c307.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd5…e4f3backed Yes33c304.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+82.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes33c300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes71c299.99$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacea…8b97backed No62c299.96$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x274a…45e5backed Yes34c291.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes16c289.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No23c278$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.52080%16 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1164…01d3backed Yes36c276.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f22…e113backed No33c275.36$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Yes37c266.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.