China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7cd6e973edbb5e397698fc3e8c1cb1981ba302200c33024d8a53f4cdc299f93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 53c | 8,936$4,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,188.38 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 7,722$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.54 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,403$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.37 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…381cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,356$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…0c59backed No | 21c | 3,494$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +381.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 28c | 3,101$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 26cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…0689backed Yes | 1c | 3,095$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 36c | 3,013$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 62c | 2,970$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 26c | 2,709$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.6 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,599$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 38c | 2,490$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.06 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +413.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…a57cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,467$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…80f6backed Yes | 66c | 2,300$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 31c | 2,200$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…c56abacked Yes | 33c | 2,085$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 21c | 2,000$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 27c | 1,924$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 16c | 1,842$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.5 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +5.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +216%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…0158backed Yes | 37c | 1,615$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 43c | 1,606$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c6…71d5backed No | 30c | 1,483$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +332%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…28dfbacked Yes | 73c | 1,366$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,354$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.34 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed Yes | 74c | 1,348$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 48c | 1,336$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e92…6929backed Yes | 40c | 1,297$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 66c | 1,251$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 71c | 1,125$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.55 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 71c | 1,100$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…b428backed No | 46c | 1,097$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…a602backed Yes | 37c | 1,083$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…c701backed Yes | 73c | 1,035$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 68c | 1,006$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked No | 25c | 997.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +349%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 42c | 982.26$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 34c | 968.45$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 41c | 956.76$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.56 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 72c | 883.42$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.42 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 876.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes | 68c | 859.74$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 31c | 834.74$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…8afcbacked Yes | 6c | 823.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 810.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 52c | 810.18$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.94 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…7c43backed Yes | 42c | 810.05$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 39c | 809.51$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.03 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…c0c8backed No | 30c | 801.63$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed No | 28c | 800.05$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.04 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +192.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…9d6cbacked Yes | 13c | 782.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 3c | 762.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 14c | 717$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 73c | 699.98$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 31c | 691.5$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +158%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 30c | 683.9$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.53 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f9…45a7backed Yes | 78c | 642.1$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 26c | 628.38$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.13 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 22c | 624.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 52c | 599.2$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.26 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 43cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 23c | 586.38$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.63 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.46per pick | 43cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 66c | 576.04$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…6361backed Yes | 5c | 570.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 69c | 537.08$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e76…daf9backed No | 71c | 535.62$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 31c | 535.54$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.54 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 64c | 516.78$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.43 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 26c | 510.47$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…31b1backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…6497backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 73cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 15c | 500$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +471.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 48c | 492$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.7 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…f911backed Yes | 14c | 471.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e9…df4abacked Yes | 77c | 457.69$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked No | 44c | 449.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.31per pick | 60cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…5acbbacked Yes | 68c | 443.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…0372backed Yes | 35c | 432.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 37c | 413.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…ec5ebacked Yes | 30c | 413.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfeb…3365backed Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…a031backed Yes | 55c | 387.46$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…6043backed Yes | 78c | 383.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 63c | 372.07$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 55c | 366.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…8c53backed Yes | 67c | 334.08$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…3c87backed Yes | 62c | 329.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…a5c3backed Yes | 32c | 307.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…e4f3backed Yes | 33c | 304.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…8b97backed No | 62c | 299.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…45e5backed Yes | 34c | 291.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes | 16c | 289.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 23c | 278$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1164…01d3backed Yes | 36c | 276.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f22…e113backed No | 33c | 275.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 37c | 266.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.