China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa145cf5714455f546afe53037b8712df749ba96c04820c2d41f37f877f29697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,337,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,204,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,337,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,836 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 0c | 1,303,793$4,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,651.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…9cbabacked Yes | 0c | 1,069,129$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…cb5cbacked Yes | 0c | 636,498$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…644abacked Yes | 1c | 556,672$4,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,876.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 0c | 436,216$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3658…5c34backed Yes | 1c | 419,951$4,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,195.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc2…03dcbacked Yes | 0c | 382,010$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked Yes | 0c | 370,864$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 10c | 369,193$38,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,229.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 0c | 308,358$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.36 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 0c | 301,767$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8d…df2abacked Yes | 0c | 289,922$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…e5bfbacked Yes | 0c | 255,240$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 2c | 241,985$5,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,920.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…b428backed Yes | 3c | 214,874$7,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,390 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Yes | 1c | 213,510$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 1c | 212,826$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 1c | 212,639$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…646ebacked Yes | 0c | 207,373$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Yes | 2c | 206,351$3,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,642.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Yes | 1c | 203,445$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5a…b691backed Yes | 0c | 200,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…91e3backed Yes | 0c | 199,623$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…cc70backed Yes | 1c | 191,303$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.58per pick | 8cpaid | +453.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8c20backed Yes | 4c | 180,281$7,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 79c | 177,314$140,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,777.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 1c | 175,283$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…9712backed Yes | 0c | 159,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…61c9backed Yes | 0c | 141,610$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b9…b0d2backed Yes | 1c | 141,532$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…ea7ebacked Yes | 0c | 136,694$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4265…3741backed Yes | 1c | 135,279$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…a60cbacked Yes | 2c | 135,164$2,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c4…9b79backed Yes | 1c | 128,053$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed Yes | 2c | 126,627$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 125,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 1c | 124,872$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…f2c5backed Yes | 2c | 122,351$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 0c | 121,539$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 121,462$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 2c | 115,903$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.42 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c75…5d0bbacked Yes | 1c | 113,465$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -68%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 0c | 110,605$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 1c | 106,011$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…de4abacked Yes | 0c | 105,463$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…4529backed Yes | 1c | 101,644$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…66c3backed Yes | 0c | 100,833$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ee…5f0fbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 0c | 99,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 1c | 96,847$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…ed14backed Yes | 0c | 94,930$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2492…8594backed Yes | 0c | 90,539$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 66c | 90,387$59,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,598.43 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe796…09b5backed Yes | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0381…0802backed Yes | 3c | 87,077$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…a1bfbacked Yes | 1c | 85,555$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…b263backed Yes | 0c | 85,252$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…893cbacked Yes | 0c | 83,389$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa851…87d2backed Yes | 0c | 83,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…2ad4backed Yes | 1c | 82,717$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 22c | 80,023$17,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,615.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 2c | 80,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…38f3backed Yes | 3c | 79,623$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 3c | 78,650$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Yes | 0c | 78,563$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x918d…fed8backed Yes | 0c | 77,710$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbe…8853backed Yes | 0c | 77,655$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…fbf2backed Yes | 1c | 77,598$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…b5e0backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…32cdbacked Yes | 1c | 74,193$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6940…b1e3backed Yes | 0c | 72,549$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…9d3abacked Yes | 13c | 70,000$9,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,427.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…04a8backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…5f09backed Yes | 0c | 69,042$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…533abacked Yes | 0c | 66,900$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 8c | 66,203$5,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…040bbacked Yes | 1c | 66,065$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed Yes | 1c | 65,990$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f9…c4e3backed Yes | 2c | 65,892$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9143…7960backed Yes | 0c | 65,840$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 1c | 64,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…f25dbacked Yes | 1c | 63,918$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…6070backed Yes | 0c | 63,274$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 63,047$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…b8f8backed Yes | 1c | 62,418$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…799cbacked Yes | 0c | 61,139$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…3a57backed Yes | 1c | 61,076$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 59,567$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e1…1d5bbacked Yes | 1c | 59,345$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 1c | 58,446$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 2c | 57,720$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…4b63backed Yes | 1c | 56,125$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…ef2dbacked Yes | 2c | 55,533$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…9b53backed Yes | 0c | 55,258$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…841abacked Yes | 0c | 52,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536f…ca28backed Yes | 1c | 51,980$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf069…e660backed Yes | 0c | 51,320$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…f9aebacked Yes | 4c | 50,288$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.