TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,337,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,204,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,337,791 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,836 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5297…7b99backed Yes0c1,303,793$4,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,651.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9952…9cbabacked Yes0c1,069,129$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.82650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b5…cb5cbacked Yes0c636,498$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96cf…644abacked Yes1c556,672$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,876.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes0c436,216$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.42450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3658…5c34backed Yes1c419,951$4,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,195.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc2…03dcbacked Yes0c382,010$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45bc…978bbacked Yes0c370,864$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb75…27a3backed Yes10c369,193$38,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,229.0980%0 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes0c308,358$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.36175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes0c301,767$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8d…df2abacked Yes0c289,922$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba8…e5bfbacked Yes0c255,240$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…a549backed Yes2c241,985$5,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,920.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…b428backed Yes3c214,874$7,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3901030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425b…18f1backed Yes1c213,510$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.0530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes1c212,826$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,585.77540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes1c212,639$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.1160%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfc…646ebacked Yes0c207,373$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb911…8bb6backed Yes2c206,351$3,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,642.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcebf…832ebacked Yes1c203,445$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5a…b691backed Yes0c200,200$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x129c…91e3backed Yes0c199,623$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca86…cc70backed Yes1c191,303$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.58per pick8cpaid+453.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2adc…8c20backed Yes4c180,281$7,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,000.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No79c177,314$140,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,777.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes1c175,283$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e8…9712backed Yes0c159,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee5b…61c9backed Yes0c141,610$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b9…b0d2backed Yes1c141,532$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6904…ea7ebacked Yes0c136,694$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4265…3741backed Yes1c135,279$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf657…a60cbacked Yes2c135,164$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22c4…9b79backed Yes1c128,053$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed Yes2c126,627$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.381050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Yes1c124,872$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.3230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282a…f2c5backed Yes2c122,351$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes0c121,539$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453170%0 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes2c121,462$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes2c115,903$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.42205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c75…5d0bbacked Yes1c113,465$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-68%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53e…93e6backed Yes0c110,605$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes1c106,011$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.7780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a3…de4abacked Yes0c105,463$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f11…4529backed Yes1c101,644$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41d3…66c3backed Yes0c100,833$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ee…5f0fbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes0c99,675$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed Yes1c96,847$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec72…ed14backed Yes0c94,930$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2492…8594backed Yes0c90,539$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No66c90,387$59,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,598.431392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.36per pick56cpaid+67.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe796…09b5backed Yes0c90,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0381…0802backed Yes3c87,077$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…a1bfbacked Yes1c85,555$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9689…b263backed Yes0c85,252$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbb…893cbacked Yes0c83,389$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa851…87d2backed Yes0c83,000$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31d…2ad4backed Yes1c82,717$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eaa…c521backed Yes22c80,023$17,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,615.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed Yes2c80,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x806d…38f3backed Yes3c79,623$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x737c…a65dbacked Yes3c78,650$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1c…9bb3backed Yes0c78,563$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x918d…fed8backed Yes0c77,710$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbe…8853backed Yes0c77,655$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe046…fbf2backed Yes1c77,598$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x242e…b5e0backed Yes0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f77…32cdbacked Yes1c74,193$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6940…b1e3backed Yes0c72,549$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac11…9d3abacked Yes13c70,000$9,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,427.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-77.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x402d…04a8backed Yes0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f4e…5f09backed Yes0c69,042$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x776d…533abacked Yes0c66,900$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes8c66,203$5,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,362.01911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9608…040bbacked Yes1c66,065$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bcd…28a1backed Yes1c65,990$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.2940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58f9…c4e3backed Yes2c65,892$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9143…7960backed Yes0c65,840$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes1c64,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e9…f25dbacked Yes1c63,918$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc1…6070backed Yes0c63,274$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes0c63,047$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0890%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bec…b8f8backed Yes1c62,418$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0166…799cbacked Yes0c61,139$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea1…3a57backed Yes1c61,076$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c59,567$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.971811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48e1…1d5bbacked Yes1c59,345$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed Yes1c58,446$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes2c57,720$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.8630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658d…4b63backed Yes1c56,125$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fda…ef2dbacked Yes2c55,533$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x875d…9b53backed Yes0c55,258$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28f…841abacked Yes0c52,265$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x536f…ca28backed Yes1c51,980$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf069…e660backed Yes0c51,320$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…f9aebacked Yes4c50,288$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.