TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c8,711$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.414725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No64c1,061$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.321580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Yes34c871.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked No54c867.65$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.039100%9 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+135.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes36c699.94$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.99293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes32c460$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b84…953abacked Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked No65c286.71$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes45c251.21$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.23714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes28c188.8$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.623043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No58c180.7$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.74723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x829c…e098backed Yes35c172.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0c1…bb30backed No65c154.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Yes35c143.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed No57c140$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.91573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7d5…47b6backed Yes36c138.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L-5.1wins-0.47per pick56cpaid-88%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No56c128.84$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.698100%8 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+152.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes34c126.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.031020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed No67c124.76$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.178100%8 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+192.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked No79c115.65$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.85560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e4…dfc2backed No50c105.71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.861566.7%10 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+683.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c105.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.186933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bf1…0089backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed No69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+53.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No59c99.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.192080%16 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8251…879dbacked Yes22c99.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2260%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c39…096bbacked Yes15c97.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabcc…2fd5backed Yes16c92.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed No56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92c4…8767backed Yes23c85.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Yes31c80.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8295…610cbacked No77c77.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked No51c76.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.388100%8 W · 0 L+4.3wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+137.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4204…165abacked Yes20c73.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a4…ab1dbacked Yes16c68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…3ea6backed No80c63.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.999100%9 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No71c60.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.72445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.41154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid+4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f8…e72ebacked Yes21c57.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd0…30a2backed Yes44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid+28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9634…aae2backed Yes38c53.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2760%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5197…0ce6backed Yes39c51.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed1f…893cbacked No20c51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411163.6%7 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.47per pick17cpaid+365.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No51c50.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.651384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.9wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-83.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70e5…649cbacked Yes42c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd024…126fbacked Yes33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fac…efcfbacked No61c43.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+328.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe46…cc5cbacked No80c42.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7597…5f01backed No60c41.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.87988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.41per pick48cpaid+92.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6312…3941backed No79c41.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Yes43c38.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd850…e26cbacked No80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57100%7 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed No56c36.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.03560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes48c34.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.63520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1bf…7780backed No69c33.03$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.24450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes47c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x361d…51f0backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9de…bfe7backed No49c30.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b2…da22backed Yes37c30.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.28per pick34cpaid-91.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x87d7…fdbfbacked No69c29.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c0b…5907backed Yes52c28.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No59c26.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8211100%11 W · 0 L+5.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+413.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9fa5…3bc2backed No79c25.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.371060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7510100%10 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c23.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.472524%6 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c20.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.942433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No53c20.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.781392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+40.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeec4…886ebacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03b3…9a65backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…043abacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick50cpaid+116.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44ee…05a8backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41090%9 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick59cpaid+87.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacfd…6e01backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…a4e5backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc6…01d3backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No79c19.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x772f…6075backed Yes80c16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.