TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,906 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x248d…77ccbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf1…8286backed Yes0c8,758$16 inLost-$1650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes0c4,071$17 inLost-$17.484725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x411a…5a86backed Yes2c1,484$27 inLost-$26.6880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738a…b44cbacked Yes11c1,091$120 inLost-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes2c656.01$16 inLost-$15.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x604a…d5f8backed Yes3c553.14$18 inLost-$18.2190%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa898…71c1backed Yes7c449.96$33 inLost-$32.7850%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes4c443.25$19 inLost-$18.6770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…7e38backed Yes3c402.99$11 inLost-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes13c318.62$41 inLost-$41.422524%6 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b91…a535backed Yes4c294.33$13 inLost-$13.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes11c254$27 inLost-$27.14185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb392…d481backed Yes4c250$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f93…b91fbacked Yes12c248.91$29 inLost-$291010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40a5…810fbacked Yes5c218.64$11 inLost-$1130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes11c200$22 inLost-$221457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1232…6158backed Yes6c188.37$11 inLost-$1180%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c4a…bdf8backed Yes8c149.59$11 inLost-$11.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes9c146$13 inLost-$13.142347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes9c139.07$13 inLost-$12.525345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5197…0ce6backed Yes18c108.18$20 inLost-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d91…7a26backed Yes18c84.51$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.