China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f4378c2e8fb0a4673813e5a5d6f5a773765bab522186932a0465f326a05328d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,129,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,622,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,129,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 709 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8b5…cb5cbacked Yes | 0c | 1,273,857$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…ba79backed Yes | 0c | 1,109,265$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 2c | 413,217$6,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,260.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 0c | 394,885$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.17 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 0c | 364,330$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 0c | 250,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…644abacked Yes | 1c | 227,476$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…6749backed Yes | 0c | 185,960$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Yes | 1c | 167,105$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…91e3backed Yes | 0c | 166,788$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa851…87d2backed Yes | 0c | 145,630$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 0c | 133,898$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…6d1fbacked Yes | 1c | 116,468$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8c20backed Yes | 4c | 112,325$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…799cbacked Yes | 0c | 111,310$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 0c | 110,592$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.78 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 0c | 109,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd638…2fcfbacked Yes | 0c | 103,540$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…d38ebacked Yes | 0c | 101,720$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…6511backed Yes | 0c | 101,403$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…b952backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x092d…3044backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 2c | 95,653$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes | 1c | 92,396$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 89,246$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…a1bfbacked Yes | 1c | 84,860$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be1…c6aabacked Yes | 0c | 78,179$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…1a9dbacked Yes | 1c | 73,919$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…38f3backed Yes | 2c | 73,091$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 9c | 70,321$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…b5e0backed Yes | 0c | 70,025$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 63,413$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0381…0802backed Yes | 3c | 60,651$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 7c | 60,349$4,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,228.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…fbf2backed Yes | 0c | 57,857$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 56,971$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 5c | 52,932$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 2c | 52,767$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…841abacked Yes | 0c | 52,381$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 77c | 47,606$36,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,108.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…c4f0backed Yes | 0c | 45,238$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…4255backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 0c | 43,680$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…e621backed Yes | 1c | 43,674$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…1cb0backed Yes | 0c | 42,256$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…ec6dbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…f9aebacked Yes | 4c | 39,697$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 25c | 39,228$9,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,969.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…5b09backed Yes | 1c | 38,609$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,910$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 2c | 36,183$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes | 3c | 35,000$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…533abacked Yes | 0c | 33,550$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…8b3bbacked Yes | 21c | 33,136$7,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,025.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…fa50backed Yes | 0c | 31,702$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 0c | 31,351$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…72d7backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 52c | 28,906$15,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,733.73 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 18c | 27,878$4,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,913.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +506%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 48c | 27,511$13,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,137.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…6ebabacked Yes | 1c | 25,483$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…abc5backed Yes | 2c | 25,363$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf60…a254backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…742dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,972$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 2c | 24,519$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,213$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c75…5d0bbacked Yes | 2c | 22,237$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -68%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes | 0c | 22,104$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Yes | 0c | 21,437$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…7e75backed Yes | 0c | 21,111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3658…5c34backed Yes | 1c | 20,790$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…9b53backed Yes | 0c | 20,480$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Yes | 1c | 20,264$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f857backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 19c | 19,943$3,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,781.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 0c | 19,691$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,444$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…f2c5backed Yes | 3c | 19,412$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…a99cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…f717backed Yes | 0c | 19,080$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…f85fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f6…a09cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,810$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…d48fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,370$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…29edbacked Yes | 0c | 18,306$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…3fe9backed Yes | 1c | 18,115$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…5f09backed Yes | 0c | 18,025$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 11c | 17,966$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,040.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 0c | 17,943$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…22d0backed Yes | 1c | 17,285$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6781…9c84backed Yes | 0c | 17,105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…15a3backed Yes | 1c | 16,791$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…8c51backed Yes | 0c | 16,503$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…ee89backed Yes | 0c | 16,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…7ff3backed Yes | 0c | 16,498$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Yes | 0c | 16,264$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…2b87backed Yes | 2c | 16,079$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.