China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9603f5e715e0b476cb99103b13e4e1384aa985cc99de14de0cc98636933e454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd471…617abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 6,007$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…5a86backed Yes | 1c | 2,803$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 12c | 760.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc2…e3e3backed No | 75c | 668$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 562.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 79c | 462.41$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 395$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Yes | 26c | 378.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 9c | 344.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 8c | 323.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 15c | 299.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…3206backed Yes | 17c | 288.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…9eaebacked Yes | 22c | 270.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 75c | 261.29$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…1aaabacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…e17bbacked Yes | 12c | 242.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 76c | 240.46$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +413.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 206.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 24c | 204.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 70c | 201.54$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 25c | 199.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 75c | 178.67$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e4…16cebacked Yes | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…9687backed Yes | 11c | 152.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…0ce6backed Yes | 27c | 150.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…893cbacked No | 14c | 140.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.47per pick | 17cpaid | +365.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 135.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 10c | 129.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…1199backed Yes | 16c | 125.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…a535backed Yes | 12c | 123.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 119.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…eb9cbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 78c | 107.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed No | 75c | 106.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 71c | 105.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 101.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2259…5605backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 62c | 96.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…a8bdbacked Yes | 16c | 95.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…1e94backed Yes | 24c | 81.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…debcbacked Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 75.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…9cb8backed Yes | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…a4e5backed No | 78c | 70.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 19c | 69.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.28per pick | 34cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…e78abacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…cecdbacked No | 79c | 63.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…ceffbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8c…53aabacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…9f59backed No | 80c | 55.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…cf78backed Yes | 22c | 53.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 78c | 47.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 77c | 45.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…9bfebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…5271backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 39.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 79c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 78c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a9…0fdcbacked No | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 75c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…641bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…e366backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.