TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,281 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c6,894$95 inLost-$94.84725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93b7…c330backed Yes1c1,620$22 inLost-$21.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdacf…3c74backed Yes15c859.59$129 inLost-$128.71475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick19cpaid+262.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes8c756.95$60 inLost-$60.49293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes10c600$60 inLost-$601030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea7…924ebacked Yes19c523.19$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes10c272.13$27 inLost-$27.213327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes19c252.61$48 inLost-$481560%9 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+196.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes12c227$27 inLost-$27.242128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Yes18c199.99$35 inLost-$35.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes17c159.98$27 inLost-$27.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes18c155.1$28 inLost-$27.76175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed Yes20c150$30 inLost-$301225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d6…40febacked Yes20c100$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes19c100$19 inLost-$191464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38cf…7148backed Yes19c100$19 inLost-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a9…0fdcbacked Yes19c97.25$19 inLost-$18.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c95.73$17 inLost-$17.232433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes22c90.9$20 inLost-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-84.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c51.2$41 inWon+$10.245345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No77c50.65$39 inWon+$11.611968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes21c50$10 inLost-$10.491010%1 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid+75.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No80c20$16 inWon+$43778.4%29 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0cf8…5ec7backed No80c20$16 inWon+$4250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked No80c18.75$15 inWon+$3.75560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.