China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e0a41420c5f422b332a0b537afefdf45de8ea948b855f5899f30ffd1da340d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $351,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 721 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 68c | 20,898$14,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,621.91 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…dea6backed Yes | 54c | 18,990$10,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,162.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 14,415$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.69 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…d7c0backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 65c | 11,078$7,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900.65 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…56aebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…11f8backed Yes | 50c | 8,487$4,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,262.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 59c | 8,437$4,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450.69 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…1b72backed Yes | 38c | 7,491$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes | 34c | 7,424$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 51c | 7,406$3,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,621.49 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 60c | 6,016$3,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.38 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,552$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 42c | 4,236$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.77 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…9f8fbacked No | 53c | 3,848$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…381cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,619$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…5b74backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 66c | 3,561$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 52c | 3,500$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 49c | 3,318$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.91 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 60c | 3,149$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 30c | 3,073$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…302fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,926$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…28dfbacked Yes | 35c | 2,896$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…7c64backed Yes | 27c | 2,840$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 38c | 2,799$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.78 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 51c | 2,581$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.92 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…cbfdbacked Yes | 42c | 2,497$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…9cbabacked No | 75c | 2,492$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…c4ecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,365$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 47c | 2,312$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfc…91b6backed Yes | 32c | 2,306$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…5409backed Yes | 0c | 2,252$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…8232backed Yes | 35c | 2,112$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 52c | 2,072$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.57 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 63c | 2,022$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…9ca3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…4ce4backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed No | 62c | 1,920$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.91 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…43c6backed Yes | 62c | 1,904$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 71c | 1,807$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…7129backed Yes | 47c | 1,783$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed No | 36c | 1,782$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +683.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…1f00backed Yes | 40c | 1,738$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 56c | 1,703$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 64c | 1,687$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 42c | 1,682$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 33c | 1,681$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,626$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.11 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 60c | 1,600$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 56c | 1,552$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…4529backed Yes | 46c | 1,512$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 20c | 1,452$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…a793backed Yes | 41c | 1,438$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…ffcdbacked No | 77c | 1,404$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 74c | 1,383$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.93 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…2581backed Yes | 19c | 1,377$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 64c | 1,373$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…5728backed Yes | 36c | 1,300$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed No | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…ab1dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,270$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 20c | 1,161$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…bc0cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,148$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,100$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 73c | 1,095$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.29 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf60…a254backed Yes | 19c | 1,039$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,013$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.4 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…fec1backed Yes | 27c | 1,002$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…2579backed Yes | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed No | 72c | 999.3$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0952…a44bbacked No | 60c | 999.03$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +206.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf19c…6bb4backed Yes | 34c | 986.92$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes | 49c | 975.23$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed No | 57c | 948.23$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.29 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +192.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 65c | 918.83$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.87 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 60c | 899.98$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…9572backed Yes | 47c | 870.53$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 34c | 862.19$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…6622backed Yes | 41c | 851.74$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Yes | 34c | 837.78$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 64c | 823.35$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked Yes | 8c | 800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…3b9cbacked Yes | 62c | 797.57$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 56c | 777$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.88 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.46per pick | 43cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x119f…c7adbacked Yes | 39c | 775.06$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…065abacked Yes | 45c | 757.47$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 33c | 743.21$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.26 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 43cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 73c | 729.95$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 32c | 721.62$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 16c | 705.91$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…2d7dbacked Yes | 43c | 703.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…9d3abacked Yes | 42c | 699.99$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 67c | 699.99$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Yes | 30c | 699.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…9cb1backed Yes | 39c | 698.96$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 80c | 694.18$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 47c | 687.91$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.49 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.