China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33f639398cfc11aa5292767883bfdae7897f81322fd622ac4d3f2dbde758daa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 5,001$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 21c | 3,411$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 80c | 2,415$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.96 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…5a86backed Yes | 2c | 1,601$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a19…a53ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,514$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 902.02$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 22c | 700$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed No | 79c | 637.52$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +683.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked No | 80c | 544.08$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 19c | 444$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 7c | 419$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 14c | 404.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 17c | 299.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.28per pick | 34cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…f25fbacked No | 78c | 256.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…a86fbacked Yes | 18c | 223.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…00febacked Yes | 15c | 196.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 12c | 167.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 151$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes | 15c | 135.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 26c | 116.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +437.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 41cpaid | +165.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x067e…625bbacked Yes | 14c | 104.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…7266backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…d481backed Yes | 16c | 94.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 22c | 90.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…6cafbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…b78ebacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 80c | 51.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…d3fcbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 80c | 36.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 79c | 36.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 79c | 33.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 32.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked No | 71c | 29.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.