China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x683106ac1b76fbad311d603e42ae76fe499fecae9f046fe473694537c3e223b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 0c | 16,789$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 9,931$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.71 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…a57cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd062…0e64backed Yes | 0c | 5,199$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Yes | 1c | 3,349$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…c56abacked Yes | 49c | 3,165$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 47c | 2,249$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 57c | 1,603$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.34 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,533$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 48c | 1,398$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 67c | 1,371$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 30c | 1,363$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 73c | 1,269$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.41 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 27c | 1,258$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.79 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +413.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 76c | 1,228$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 37c | 1,170$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,010$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,004$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…0c40backed Yes | 35c | 936.09$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 33c | 899.94$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 865.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…427cbacked No | 68c | 839.97$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05d…58a7backed Yes | 1c | 823.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…6043backed No | 46c | 812.32$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 12c | 753.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 42c | 700$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed No | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.21 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 65c | 685.65$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc2…e3e3backed Yes | 74c | 673.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 66c | 650.01$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 38c | 646.38$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 33c | 599.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 43c | 599.96$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.95 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 597.75$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.29 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 38c | 584.03$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 30c | 560.98$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.23 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 76c | 555.11$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.11 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 18c | 549.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 57c | 531.6$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 52c | 528$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.92 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 50c | 480.61$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…2372backed Yes | 56c | 470.96$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…22c0backed Yes | 58c | 457.05$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 24c | 442.54$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.23 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 62c | 439.07$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.99 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…9624backed Yes | 74c | 407.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed No | 44c | 399.94$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a9…0fdcbacked No | 49c | 389.73$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1a67backed Yes | 78c | 385.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed No | 64c | 371.84$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…38ffbacked Yes | 38c | 366.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 11c | 350$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…e548backed Yes | 58c | 344.21$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 50c | 340.29$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.29 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 19c | 338.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 68c | 338.31$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 22c | 335.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…a5c3backed Yes | 30c | 333.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed No | 30c | 330.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 5c | 329.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…d7a8backed Yes | 28c | 312.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 26c | 301.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 32cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e8…d63ebacked No | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +288.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…1222backed Yes | 33c | 299.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 28c | 298.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +158%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed Yes | 34c | 296.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 68c | 292.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…89a0backed Yes | 72c | 275.33$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Yes | 37c | 269.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 30c | 268.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed No | 76c | 263.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…8efebacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…e42cbacked Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…beddbacked No | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 25cpaid | +228.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d0…ef7ebacked Yes | 65c | 246.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 64c | 245.86$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…9cabbacked Yes | 38c | 240.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…d937backed No | 30c | 234.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 67c | 229.95$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes | 65c | 229.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 65c | 226.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…83a7backed Yes | 56c | 223.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…416ebacked Yes | 21c | 217.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…8977backed Yes | 72c | 208.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 25c | 208.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…dcadbacked No | 63c | 206.57$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 48c | 204.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…734cbacked Yes | 70c | 202.86$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…3935backed Yes | 71c | 201.5$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…216fbacked Yes | 70c | 198.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3beb…e348backed Yes | 71c | 194.27$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0f77backed Yes | 71c | 193.28$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…84b6backed Yes | 72c | 191.9$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…37a8backed Yes | 13c | 191.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b8…447abacked Yes | 36c | 190.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 55c | 190.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 189.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.44 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…696cbacked Yes | 69c | 188.54$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.