China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c704e7cc8fc9f8d8ca1bb203736b3f4469d9d7e6e27e7fc7494462b74574d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 10,926$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.43 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…d9c4backed Yes | 1c | 3,637$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 64c | 1,748$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.55 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,400$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.28 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 75c | 1,398$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 20c | 1,300$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaf…20c0backed Yes | 39c | 1,262$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…cbfdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,200$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked No | 77c | 1,077$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,023$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…28dfbacked Yes | 33c | 913.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 63c | 862.27$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.43 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…2db7backed No | 68c | 837.23$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…3405backed Yes | 12c | 790.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…785ebacked Yes | 10c | 773.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19c…6bb4backed Yes | 42c | 717.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 38c | 610.11$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 595.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Yes | 17c | 576.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 21c | 528.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 60c | 453.16$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 76c | 450$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 63c | 444$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…839abacked Yes | 11c | 437.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 423.16$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 61c | 403.95$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +413.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…6622backed Yes | 38c | 396.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 56c | 394.29$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.49 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 73c | 382.35$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 64c | 331.58$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…c005backed Yes | 13c | 315.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 59c | 315.71$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196f…7e75backed Yes | 19c | 314.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 12c | 305.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 70c | 299.69$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e3…bab9backed Yes | 37c | 268.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 256.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…e72ebacked Yes | 15c | 237$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…8d21backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5667…bb43backed Yes | 36c | 230.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +103%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 73c | 230.16$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 26c | 195.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c39…096bbacked Yes | 17c | 181.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 59c | 178.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b39…a580backed No | 71c | 175.49$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…893cbacked No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.47per pick | 17cpaid | +365.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…5399backed No | 59c | 166.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 18c | 164.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Yes | 13c | 158.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 157.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe90…86d8backed Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed No | 65c | 153.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 67c | 152.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…47b6backed Yes | 33c | 151.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -5.1wins | -0.47per pick | 56cpaid | -88%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…e937backed Yes | 37c | 146.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 20c | 143.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2e…d3cabacked Yes | 12c | 139$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 132.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…5de2backed Yes | 38c | 132.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 64c | 131.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd0…30a2backed Yes | 40c | 124.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…7975backed Yes | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…a031backed Yes | 38c | 104.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…72e4backed Yes | 24c | 103.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…580fbacked No | 62c | 101.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…71b5backed Yes | 15c | 100.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…a793backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…1702backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 59c | 99.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6158backed Yes | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 61c | 97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa836…753fbacked No | 61c | 96.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…08fdbacked Yes | 44c | 96.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.1wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…f33ebacked Yes | 32c | 94.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 91.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…0f35backed Yes | 22c | 89.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed No | 58c | 89.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89a…d889backed Yes | 36c | 83.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 36c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…3784backed Yes | 31c | 81.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…b91fbacked Yes | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 72c | 81.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 79.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed No | 64c | 77.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…8573backed Yes | 39c | 77.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 67c | 76.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…a78dbacked Yes | 31c | 74.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 41cpaid | +165.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…0fb1backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed No | 70c | 71.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked Yes | 36c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.