TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7597…5f01

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 62 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2259.1%13 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$4.97
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+85%+$21.26
Will Paradex launch a token by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+29.1%+$10.51
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+44.9%+$4.56
Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
Over $500K committed to the Foresee public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+46.8%+$5.62
Tria FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+49.3%+$4.97
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+123.6%+$14.84
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+47.1%+$5.65
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$43.5
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$91.92
Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.48
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$277.54
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+25.4%+$6.86
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+75.5%+$56.65
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.1%+$62.11
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+50%+$52.92
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
All 22 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+511%+$1,083.24
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+33%+$8.26
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$15.25
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.07
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+59%+$14.24
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$306.7
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.5
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$4.8
All 16 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.41per pick48cpaid+92.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+74.6%+$9.56
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+125.3%+$48.09
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+178.3%+$66.8
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+96.9%+$24.9
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$16.87
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+51%+$9.49
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+102.2%+$16.35
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+240%+$301.07
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.11
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+33.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$13.12
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+88.2%+$13.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" or "Kelce" on The Late Show on December 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+58.7%+$7.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$18.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.