Token Launches · resolved market
Tria FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94194f125f7001ddbd8c81e04a3bbc97342d4f80b9516e8b6af5b3df11eb413f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 52c | 8,227$4,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,256.98 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…7e40backed Yes | 2c | 6,200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…1ef4backed Yes | 5c | 5,343$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 52c | 4,803$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.69 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 70c | 3,600$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 65c | 3,372$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.97 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 42c | 2,524$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.02 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed No | 54c | 2,506$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…d285backed Yes | 52c | 2,493$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…0e44backed Yes | 61c | 2,298$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…6474backed No | 78c | 1,947$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940b…9dccbacked Yes | 33c | 1,797$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed Yes | 24c | 1,671$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 44c | 1,647$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.31 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…8ddbbacked No | 68c | 1,592$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad41…a108backed No | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…968abacked Yes | 29c | 1,357$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.46 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…a9debacked Yes | 25c | 1,224$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 40c | 1,190$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.65 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd55f…36ecbacked Yes | 53c | 1,123$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781a…96e6backed No | 38c | 1,120$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 30c | 1,097$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.89 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 68c | 1,096$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.73 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 30c | 1,078$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.52 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…7c67backed No | 53c | 1,076$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbc…167cbacked No | 25c | 1,032$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…3f04backed No | 39c | 1,020$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 25c | 1,019$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.67 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 64c | 1,000$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.55 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd09…9c71backed No | 61c | 1,000$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked Yes | 62c | 989$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.18 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 25c | 945.03$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 39c | 932.55$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c02…53c6backed No | 47c | 900$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…7875backed No | 77c | 860$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 50c | 762.08$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.46 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 58c | 759.93$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.5 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 74c | 739.85$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.01 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 716$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed Yes | 24c | 705.44$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.7 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked Yes | 31c | 648.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…39c7backed No | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 18c | 600$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…0184backed No | 35c | 599.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…f36fbacked Yes | 26c | 572.54$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 49cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 76c | 515.76$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…7d21backed Yes | 38c | 454.13$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…227bbacked Yes | 45c | 442.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed Yes | 24c | 435$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 64c | 430.94$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 39c | 409.89$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…be1abacked No | 78c | 405$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe4…b196backed Yes | 65c | 403.22$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed Yes | 28c | 402.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 30c | 402.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2221…ec1bbacked Yes | 37c | 399.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 22c | 396.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cab…417abacked Yes | 27c | 389.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 64c | 387.97$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Yes | 44c | 386$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.85 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…729abacked No | 67c | 377.6$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.61 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…d7b4backed Yes | 13c | 361.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…03f9backed Yes | 61c | 359.83$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 343.12$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.31 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 332.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed Yes | 24c | 325$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 319.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.38 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 79c | 317.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…8c82backed Yes | 15c | 312.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 44c | 307.84$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…fa95backed Yes | 32c | 302.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…a6e0backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…adcdbacked No | 35c | 299.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…c3dbbacked Yes | 63c | 288.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…e628backed No | 79c | 286.78$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876c…9294backed Yes | 62c | 280$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 76c | 273.57$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 67c | 273.23$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 42c | 271.02$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 263.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f78…efa9backed No | 78c | 260$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c6…910ebacked No | 67c | 253.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…8be5backed Yes | 40c | 250.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 23c | 249.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed No | 63c | 232.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed No | 55c | 232.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…0db3backed Yes | 13c | 228.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 72c | 225$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tria FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Tria FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Tria FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Tria FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.