Token Launches · resolved market
Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x374e86da7257106731513b2b381ac247ceed0b0f76c06892d4bbe8c30f34583c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf76c…d524backed Yes | 75c | 13,580$10,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,361.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed No | 24c | 7,368$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 24c | 7,086$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 61c | 5,797$3,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.42 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes | 72c | 4,244$3,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.93 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed No | 26c | 3,350$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed No | 23c | 3,300$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 8c | 3,098$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…4d36backed No | 30c | 3,050$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,750$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 2,390$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 28c | 2,380$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.16 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…8d0fbacked No | 7c | 2,268$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 21c | 2,236$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.99 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 1c | 2,147$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 15c | 2,136$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked No | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…b3eebacked Yes | 75c | 1,947$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 27c | 1,938$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.62 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed No | 39c | 1,850$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.64 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…3fb2backed No | 32c | 1,820$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.28 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed No | 3c | 1,800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…db3dbacked No | 1c | 1,750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,527$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked No | 38c | 1,493$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.96 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…9395backed No | 27c | 1,282$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 10c | 1,200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 1,146$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.37 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 31c | 1,128$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.72 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 33c | 1,092$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.75 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked No | 25c | 1,018$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked No | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 987.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed No | 35c | 984.91$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 899.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 22c | 886.58$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed No | 41c | 845.96$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 7c | 829.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked No | 7c | 791.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 15c | 765.78$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked No | 27c | 756.15$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 78c | 699.99$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 39c | 699.99$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed No | 16c | 666.38$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked No | 30c | 641.86$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 9c | 634.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed No | 41c | 613.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…2619backed No | 26c | 600$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 8c | 598.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 47c | 574.82$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.33 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 19c | 565.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed No | 33c | 557.64$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed No | 4c | 550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked No | 10c | 516.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…dc57backed Yes | 78c | 514.1$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +84%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed No | 30c | 512.03$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.61 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…427ebacked No | 37c | 510.81$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…54c2backed Yes | 64c | 490.51$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.61 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x818f…4041backed Yes | 70c | 477.34$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked No | 27c | 437.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…ba96backed No | 9c | 420$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 9c | 416.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 26c | 407.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d79…2f2fbacked Yes | 67c | 401.26$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed No | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…63c3backed Yes | 76c | 394.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…3a52backed No | 29c | 348.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked No | 24c | 335.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…29edbacked Yes | 65c | 321.01$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed No | 22c | 306.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 29c | 298.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 62c | 281.85$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.75 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 27c | 232$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 225$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 25c | 218.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…4cf2backed No | 20c | 217.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 39c | 214.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 77c | 214.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 210.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed No | 9c | 198.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 22c | 195.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…fe1cbacked No | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 21c | 172.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked No | 30c | 169.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 80c | 167.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 18c | 164.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…5f55backed No | 9c | 153.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed Yes | 65c | 153.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +12.3wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd043…7e85backed No | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 17c | 144.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 17c | 143.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6d…db4fbacked Yes | 77c | 142.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked No | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 8c | 137.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 39c | 135.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked No | 9c | 131.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…97e7backed No | 21c | 130.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.