Token Launches · resolved market
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x216e9efd9081de569be390ca9c0d26be2ce36cc982a8e8b382453ebb9685a8c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Yes | 26c | 21,008$5,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,479.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…3b5abacked Yes | 7c | 3,300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2988…952abacked Yes | 8c | 2,700$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,437$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,299$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef6…5a41backed Yes | 7c | 1,900$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…470dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,557$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…b229backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 36c | 1,250$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.23 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 67c | 1,190$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.5 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed No | 62c | 1,189$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,054$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 933.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 875.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 809.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 78c | 725.12$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.09 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 10c | 722.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 38c | 650.02$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 74c | 649.99$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.71 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 64c | 618.93$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 602.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 574.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 77c | 560.07$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.02 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 57c | 528.7$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.23 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed No | 29c | 515.69$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.69 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 13c | 426$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked Yes | 6c | 415.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed No | 56c | 389.92$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3987backed No | 59c | 377.93$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 71c | 372.56$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 6c | 297.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 290.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…8d68backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 66c | 228.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 71c | 206$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 73c | 188.07$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…6e16backed No | 29c | 181.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cab…417abacked No | 65c | 159.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…ee49backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…db4fbacked No | 72c | 134.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…d33bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked No | 30c | 99.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 59c | 91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed No | 65c | 88.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 25c | 84.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…846bbacked No | 70c | 83.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 17c | 78.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 27c | 74.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…b3fdbacked No | 27c | 67.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…5dd9backed No | 75c | 66.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…62c5backed No | 74c | 66.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 63.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…459fbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 30c | 57.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…afe6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6f…f5c1backed No | 72c | 47.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4854…3335backed No | 55c | 37.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…888ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 72c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed No | 67c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…92f8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.