Token Launches · resolved market
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e570f6defa9b72e96c7166d96fdc7b56a074010c5a305fbfa2731cbcdc6756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Yes | 50c | 23,016$11,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,577.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 27c | 10,471$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.24 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 65c | 4,620$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.68 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed No | 74c | 4,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed No | 64c | 3,654$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.07 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,062$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed No | 45c | 3,025$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…766ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,791$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 2,709$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.61 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,543$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 45c | 2,325$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.04 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…e174backed Yes | 28c | 2,245$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,158$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.25 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 66c | 2,030$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.09 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 80c | 1,995$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 1,584$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 70c | 1,523$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.37 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed No | 79c | 1,504$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 77c | 1,465$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.7 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…fcc9backed No | 77c | 1,459$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 19c | 1,251$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.11 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 21c | 1,154$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed No | 73c | 1,089$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.05 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked No | 67c | 1,070$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…1f21backed Yes | 31c | 1,057$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6251…cc85backed Yes | 1c | 1,057$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…1232backed Yes | 4c | 1,052$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 23c | 1,009$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.48 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 73c | 992.06$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.27 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed No | 37c | 991.9$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 946.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a9…e3efbacked No | 69c | 858.09$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed Yes | 43c | 795.87$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.65 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 6c | 760.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 43c | 700$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 38c | 678.04$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.27 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…3979backed No | 75c | 655.57$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…78cabacked No | 50c | 634.87$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3152…2ef1backed Yes | 2c | 624.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…69b0backed Yes | 53c | 568.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 63cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 556.88$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.93 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 543$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked Yes | 16c | 501.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked No | 73c | 500$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…54c2backed No | 71c | 483.54$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 54c | 480.1$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.15 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 76c | 468.26$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 65c | 459.97$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.83 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 51c | 457.2$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.36 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes | 4c | 453.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…070abacked No | 69c | 451.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed No | 73c | 442.86$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +12.3wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 72c | 431.36$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 21c | 429.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 38c | 425.96$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 69c | 421.01$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed No | 27c | 420$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c40…068bbacked Yes | 7c | 402.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 46c | 400$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…a182backed No | 63c | 400$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…acd9backed Yes | 31c | 400$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 63c | 399.99$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76c…d524backed No | 65c | 384.07$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 376.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 45c | 375.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.87 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d3…98b8backed Yes | 42c | 358.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 55c | 355$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…d4a7backed Yes | 33c | 350.31$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…f5d8backed Yes | 30c | 332.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 327.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 48c | 311.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.93 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…0f75backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…edf7backed Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe716…1450backed Yes | 54c | 273.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…2a2abacked No | 74c | 271$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 267.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5389…d317backed No | 75c | 266.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 25c | 258$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.19 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 39c | 254.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…0278backed Yes | 17c | 240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9eaabacked Yes | 26c | 231$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 54c | 227.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 39c | 225.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…846bbacked No | 45c | 222.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…6b29backed No | 76c | 208.79$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.