Token Launches · resolved market
Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd955407ed2e58d1b9989b08bac580a148b050770f3f5104c0b01d03d6bcac9c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Yes | 19c | 9,125$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,732$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 8c | 1,640$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 62c | 1,053$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.03 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 55c | 873$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.32 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 58c | 490.49$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.35 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 464.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 353.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 5c | 275.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 70c | 275$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed No | 70c | 273.04$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…ea23backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3987backed No | 78c | 150.89$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d2…c736backed No | 73c | 90.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 71c | 79.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…a9afbacked No | 54c | 73.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed No | 68c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab6…1d0cbacked No | 68c | 42.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…b3fdbacked No | 52c | 39.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…93e9backed No | 69c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.