Movies · resolved market
Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7687a5e22745b31996664aa1788202abcaacb99aad54f36dd4e7f3c558d27cdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 31c | 1,563$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.57 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 25c | 1,388$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked No | 18c | 1,222$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +485.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaed6…a669backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 39c | 621.49$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.95 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 566.07$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.69 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 23c | 559.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.98 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 503.49$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.99 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 14c | 443.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.05 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 384.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.94 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 24c | 284$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.55 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 45c | 279.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.66 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 40c | 257.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.57 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 15c | 234.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 218.13$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 217.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.42 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…aa7dbacked Yes | 66c | 152.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 9c | 141$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 72c | 124$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 15c | 116$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 114.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 109.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…6804backed No | 19c | 106.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…175bbacked No | 30c | 92.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 85.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 74.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…5f01backed Yes | 62c | 57.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469b…e793backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fe…5ee4backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…277bbacked Yes | 55c | 29.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes | 66c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e29…b98abacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea3…0760backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)this page
- Will "Crazy, Stupid, Love" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.