Movies · resolved market
Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0239bf7083aa5c7a5440d66413890aeea64c1dc4223c07d8a7d4237c705986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,881$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 10c | 1,659$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.4 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 6c | 1,023$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.01 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 14c | 776.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e24…8670backed No | 22c | 756.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5951…9346backed Yes | 79c | 596.88$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba7b…b949backed Yes | 78c | 560.89$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Yes | 7c | 499.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…fec1backed Yes | 9c | 452.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,030.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Yes | 7c | 302.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +485.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 23c | 253.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 239.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 68c | 238.46$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.92 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 57c | 230$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 61c | 207.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.23 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…362dbacked Yes | 33c | 196.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…f531backed Yes | 42c | 187.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…efa8backed No | 59c | 187.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.78 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed Yes | 56c | 179.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f196backed Yes | 8c | 178.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 56c | 155.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…57fdbacked Yes | 38c | 146.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 28c | 135.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…6804backed Yes | 24c | 126.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed Yes | 39c | 125$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 9c | 115.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 107$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 103.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 80c | 100.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes | 78c | 95.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…b054backed Yes | 52c | 92.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…b265backed Yes | 41c | 73.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…e650backed Yes | 49c | 67.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 69c | 63.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 60.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 58.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…63a7backed Yes | 34c | 55.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +170.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…0371backed Yes | 79c | 48.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed No | 48c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…7a87backed Yes | 72c | 44.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e29…b98abacked Yes | 51c | 43.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 64c | 40.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abe…61debacked Yes | 75c | 40.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…20a1backed No | 64c | 34.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 50c | 32.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c50…8831backed Yes | 72c | 30.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4860…2690backed Yes | 49c | 29.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b4…27efbacked No | 65c | 27.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…9ea2backed Yes | 42c | 25.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…fce4backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)this page
- Will "Crazy, Stupid, Love" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.