Movies · resolved market
Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde36229b74eab618019aa1aec8211fb29b7d8d12125111f7cfe3df392af5c716
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 47c | 632$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.96 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 53c | 623$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 470.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 7c | 409.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 71c | 165.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 53c | 124$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 47c | 115$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…5f01backed No | 36c | 111.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 48c | 47.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 50c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1778…7a47backed No | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 66c | 25.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…6c6cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…649abacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Is It Cake? Valentines" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.