TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c1,136$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No75c511.96$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5832157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes14c369.39$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5828737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No76c330.16$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2811956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c300.84$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.944,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6810…c641backed Yes29c299.76$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.633836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes13c290.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked No69c283.32$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5610865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes6c280$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.852245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes20c275.76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5813930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes5c258.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7333620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No73c239.39$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.21735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes24c218.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4443238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes24c217.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes9c212.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7159440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes6c184.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes6c184.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5421235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes27c171.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1439535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes25c160.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0646232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No72c158$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6319259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2702…06bebacked Yes29c156.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.69328%26 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid+49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a0…1907backed Yes7c152.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12739.6%7 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade8…652abacked Yes28c149.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.161625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes27c143.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1732444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e0…d131backed No70c139.58$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes21c138.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.671,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes27c135.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.076418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed1…adf1backed Yes25c125.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.531346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No74c114.72$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.461,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec5…5001backed Yes24c113.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.09633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes27c109.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.344235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes27c107.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes28c103.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3249941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes27c102.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82f…206fbacked No71c102.23$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c98.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.631,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c98.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c95.33$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes28c91.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No77c86.38$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5942976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0101…172ebacked No72c82.2$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.661145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8596…34c2backed No73c81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.872466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes20c78.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes19c69.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0734067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes22c68.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c68.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.653,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No80c59.96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.994,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c57.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.815,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes25c54.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.499338.7%36 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c53.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.093,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes20c53.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.891,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes21c52.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.245841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes28c50.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1810427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1424046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e3…f0adbacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fb…4b6ebacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes26c48.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.526833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacb6…337fbacked Yes28c47.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.374337.2%16 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7597…5f01backed Yes29c46.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x892c…5b27backed Yes28c46.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c43.88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.393,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No75c42.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.691,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No74c41.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8446743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No75c39.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.042055%11 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d29…c502backed No71c32.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.444261.9%26 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe63e…86fcbacked No74c29.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.793100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c29.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No78c26.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9128648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd831…cc54backed No76c25.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ec…a20abacked No74c23.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.263470.6%24 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…f542backed No74c23.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.943100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b01…e204backed No75c21.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No71c20.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9810444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…4785backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.33243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x416e…7448backed No74c19.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.181553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88ee…9dadbacked No77c19.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick76cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No75c19.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.911,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No73c18.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0219058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No75c18.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5624149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5374…d802backed No73c17.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.713125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…ff74backed No73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.275255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No72c14.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.11,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No73c13.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.729653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.