Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f1b5a3eac1874abbb17c5f9fca58a09c8dff5826333bb619713d00a2ded499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 47c | 3,473$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.9 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…13acbacked Yes | 58c | 3,285$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 1,118$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 844.51$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 72c | 625.04$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 624.45$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 4c | 624.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 535$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.55 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 67c | 501.39$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 65c | 492.17$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…54c9backed No | 5c | 424.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 70c | 411.57$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200c…3ad8backed Yes | 74c | 393.74$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 73c | 389.41$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 74c | 335.62$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 307.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 33c | 291.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 269.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 33c | 258.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 44c | 254.61$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 8c | 242.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 41c | 242.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Yes | 71c | 206.71$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed No | 38c | 201.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 34c | 198.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 45c | 196.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 38c | 188.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed No | 31c | 186.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 179.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 60c | 178.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 172.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 75c | 165.14$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 163.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 60c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 32c | 146.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 47c | 142.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 78c | 140.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked No | 50c | 139.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 44c | 132.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 71c | 129.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…f717backed No | 59c | 124$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 63c | 118.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 110.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 21c | 106.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 10c | 106.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x95ca…4305backed Yes | 73c | 100.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…ca37backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…9eb1backed No | 49c | 98.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 98.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 98.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 97.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 96.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 21c | 95.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 92.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 91.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 23c | 90.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 75c | 90.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…c7aebacked No | 49c | 88.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 69c | 87.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 30c | 87.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 63c | 87.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 36c | 87.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 56c | 86.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…4b6ebacked No | 69c | 85.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…8ae2backed No | 17c | 85.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 67c | 83.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 26c | 83.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 34c | 83.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 48c | 82.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed Yes | 73c | 80.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 34c | 73.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6b69backed No | 32c | 72.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 49c | 71.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 44c | 67.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 73c | 66.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf558…b2cbbacked Yes | 17c | 62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 61.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed No | 51c | 60.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 66c | 59.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 33c | 57.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed No | 27c | 56.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked Yes | 36c | 56.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 26c | 55.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 79c | 54.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 53.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 68c | 50.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…0a52backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.