Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4dcb2c487cf0ff79850ae7346d72a739a99432fa6739b91de6e8b64cbbeb332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,033$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 6c | 795.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 337.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 5c | 323.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 7c | 279.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 220.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 30c | 200.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 181.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 17c | 181.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 72c | 162.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5333…df0dbacked Yes | 23c | 154.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 148.75$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 140.01$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 26c | 136.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 123.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed Yes | 25c | 117.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 115.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 114.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 27c | 112.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 35c | 99.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 31c | 94.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 31c | 89.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 89.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…c053backed Yes | 32c | 79.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 79.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 64.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…5b27backed Yes | 33c | 59.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 32c | 55.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 68c | 51.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 29c | 49.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…adf1backed Yes | 32c | 49.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 77c | 49.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 48.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 25c | 48.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 47.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…425cbacked Yes | 38c | 44.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 66c | 44.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 44.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 29c | 43.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 33c | 42.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 39.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 39.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 70c | 32.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 66c | 32.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 33c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 29.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd831…cc54backed No | 72c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 80c | 22.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 68c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed No | 70c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 65c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 71c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfc…59e9backed No | 72c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 77c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…acb1backed No | 72c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.