TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,261,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$953,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,261,221 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 822 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec3a…a709backed Yes3c77,121$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes26c51,095$13,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,180.884546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdcd…14f6backed Yes2c26,386$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6582…b20bbacked Yes4c22,391$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes4c17,400$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes27c16,624$4,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,489.563748.6%18 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes18c16,519$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes27c15,318$4,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,178.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-77.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9eb…e9b4backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes32c14,991$4,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,809.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca9…233abacked Yes23c14,712$3,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,397.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes3c13,768$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2dd…00aebacked Yes21c11,237$2,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes28c10,610$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.6728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad97…748bbacked Yes1c10,436$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4875…bf10backed Yes4c10,043$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d7b…a3aebacked Yes23c9,363$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b71…bf20backed Yes5c8,925$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes20c8,835$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.052931%9 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+61.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd165…b34cbacked Yes1c8,090$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd57…c169backed Yes2c8,073$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d5…391bbacked Yes19c7,882$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4669…1005backed Yes2c7,740$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe28d…fc96backed Yes10c7,672$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df2…d357backed Yes5c7,390$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes4c7,344$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.78140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b5…3591backed Yes11c6,938$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdde3…e797backed Yes1c6,892$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes43c6,725$2,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,863.881172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe21…65e5backed Yes7c6,715$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4751127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…dd3abacked Yes44c6,629$2,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.822050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b6c…3d7bbacked Yes3c6,478$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b2…8619backed Yes29c6,409$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.21425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes0c6,020$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e16…1cc2backed Yes1c5,354$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fb…859dbacked Yes17c5,342$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e6…e056backed Yes2c5,199$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No69c5,091$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.738047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes1c5,043$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes39c4,907$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da7…7071backed Yes1c4,829$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes20c4,794$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65cf…8f97backed Yes1c4,723$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed Yes69c4,708$3,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,257.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes1c4,659$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes7c4,533$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes62c4,413$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.54825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe473…c4bdbacked Yes4c4,408$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19de…442fbacked Yes3c4,323$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce83…ad5bbacked Yes2c4,278$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes61c4,010$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.52944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0986…4e45backed Yes40c3,877$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked Yes3c3,859$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ccd…f416backed Yes1c3,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c3,753$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.946949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa822…45c4backed Yes0c3,634$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a52…3e04backed Yes26c3,620$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e05…ae77backed Yes2c3,539$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82fd…deb1backed Yes7c3,448$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No71c3,430$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.977439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eed…ed9dbacked Yes8c3,406$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5718…8b83backed Yes59c3,330$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b4…72f8backed Yes40c3,330$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebad…f22bbacked Yes45c3,282$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.14450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes32c3,255$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.35966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e44…edabbacked Yes1c3,159$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b7…282fbacked Yes6c3,152$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x126f…eeaabacked Yes42c3,130$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4afd…1241backed Yes11c3,100$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes30c3,073$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4114…9135backed Yes1c3,072$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes70c3,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9c…19c8backed Yes48c2,997$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe7…92b8backed Yes20c2,979$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.67616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd5…0ed7backed Yes3c2,935$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed No70c2,928$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.987152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x468d…e949backed Yes2c2,810$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7695…9cedbacked Yes1c2,800$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff7…94d5backed Yes25c2,794$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc357…6646backed Yes31c2,790$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes2c2,788$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb901…b947backed Yes1c2,759$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes37c2,723$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.383237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffa6…4bbebacked Yes60c2,683$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.35560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes13c2,610$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes49c2,591$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe19d…334dbacked Yes2c2,540$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb92d…bbcabacked Yes1c2,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5431…f4e6backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed Yes33c2,471$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.523125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e4…accabacked Yes2c2,403$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c2,368$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.4610143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x671b…9a07backed Yes38c2,351$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee0…b7cebacked Yes1c2,290$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed No41c2,204$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes40c2,184$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ead…1514backed Yes12c2,164$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No60c2,110$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.221435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6186…c98abacked Yes1c1,998$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605b…df31backed Yes23c1,970$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.9128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick29cpaid-84.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.