TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125M and 150M views in its first 7 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$787,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$636,953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $787,120 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbed1…5132backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes1c37,524$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c18,694$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.195679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes0c15,783$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…de80backed Yes3c15,131$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0949…1999backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes3c13,908$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4422931%9 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+61.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0e…6033backed Yes0c13,133$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes0c10,391$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.473748.6%18 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes1c10,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051a…fc66backed Yes1c9,804$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec2…2db6backed Yes1c8,809$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07eb…8192backed Yes3c7,638$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3163…8b9cbacked Yes0c7,441$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf89e…9190backed Yes3c6,727$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c6,208$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0623024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c5,696$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.871444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c5,443$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.492412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+99.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Yes0c5,413$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.711947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed Yes2c5,387$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6b…4d76backed Yes4c4,878$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes2c4,470$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605b…df31backed Yes4c4,200$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.76128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick29cpaid-84.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes3c4,052$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes4c3,654$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes14c3,612$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff7…94d5backed Yes6c3,611$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd86…b0acbacked Yes2c3,492$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes15c3,417$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…1a58backed Yes1c3,372$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb29…fb86backed Yes2c3,250$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes6c3,220$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004454.5%24 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c3,064$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.288213.4%11 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes0c2,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.233237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afd…1241backed Yes5c2,500$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4669…1005backed Yes4c2,497$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad97…748bbacked Yes1c2,494$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd9…97a7backed Yes9c2,111$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c2,023$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.632025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a9…5225backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b34…9e82backed Yes7c1,965$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes1c1,873$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes7c1,835$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988c…e006backed Yes6c1,700$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de9…6018backed Yes8c1,665$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.76633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc493…b8f3backed Yes3c1,660$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.86425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…dd3abacked Yes13c1,654$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.152050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8269…7c3abacked Yes7c1,630$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes1c1,585$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes3c1,557$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f31…22d5backed Yes3c1,555$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fb…859dbacked Yes7c1,533$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes1c1,533$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec74…312bbacked Yes5c1,438$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed9…be97backed Yes4c1,402$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cce…8c59backed Yes1c1,366$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c8…5799backed Yes6c1,335$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes1c1,327$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,318$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ead…1514backed Yes8c1,314$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x937e…15f9backed Yes9c1,312$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c1,284$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc0…17cabacked Yes5c1,277$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes3c1,253$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.773732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd31…4b87backed Yes3c1,232$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913f…916dbacked Yes1c1,228$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x499b…19eebacked Yes4c1,220$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes3c1,212$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43bf…c53abacked Yes2c1,209$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef5…671fbacked Yes4c1,193$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff8c…680abacked Yes1c1,148$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4013backed Yes4c1,142$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e6…e056backed Yes2c1,133$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d83…d1dabacked Yes6c1,116$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.061241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe7…92b8backed Yes4c1,111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23a8…8004backed Yes1c1,087$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b2…8619backed Yes22c1,087$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e4…accabacked Yes1c1,079$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd0…2222backed Yes5c1,072$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.092060%12 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes1c1,068$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.772454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes4c1,065$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes2c1,063$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde39…f3b5backed Yes15c1,060$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.85520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ce…e978backed Yes7c1,047$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b54…2d32backed Yes1c1,033$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes7c1,010$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c1,005$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2336826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1a…7ddebacked Yes1c1,001$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes1c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a52…3e04backed Yes17c998.82$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2147…a818backed Yes10c990.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…0bd6backed Yes4c989.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes5c969.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3811…db30backed Yes1c958$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes2c953.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6598…0b0bbacked Yes2c949.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes3c877.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.031020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes5c863.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes3c799.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a94…78b6backed Yes39c792.08$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.