TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M and 75M views in its first 7 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$407,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$242,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,565 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb100…6461backed Yes1c48,683$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.24546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes1c20,550$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.82412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-72.5%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c18,887$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes2c16,556$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9eb…e9b4backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes0c13,489$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,063$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.445679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,572$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7923024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4a…102cbacked Yes0c3,514$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ad…5134backed Yes1c3,342$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+159.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0639…312fbacked Yes8c3,069$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4906…5b11backed Yes0c2,915$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c2,914$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.391444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes4c2,907$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.572931%9 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+61.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c2,880$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.758213.4%11 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes4c2,842$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c2,742$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.152412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+99.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked Yes12c2,612$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…08a9backed Yes6c2,541$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcc…7f4dbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca9…233abacked Yes2c2,348$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.43837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8425…b8f9backed Yes1c2,317$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes2c2,125$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.93732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0b4…3c6ebacked Yes7c2,030$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes3c1,900$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a94…78b6backed Yes9c1,861$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2dd…00aebacked Yes2c1,772$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d46…fdb2backed Yes4c1,323$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0986…4e45backed Yes2c1,245$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.54650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes2c1,170$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes2c1,090$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.389136.3%33 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+71.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0383…7034backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes1c999.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.996759.7%40 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7e7…d051backed Yes3c999.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed Yes30c988.56$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c751.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a4…a3c5backed Yes4c676.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+183.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9c…d2bdbacked Yes3c636.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051a…fc66backed Yes4c631.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dd…a1ccbacked Yes3c609.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9582…9891backed Yes7c564.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccd…1c5ebacked Yes4c519.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1375…7340backed Yes5c500.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca42…f443backed Yes4c452.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-63.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes4c436.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.374843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Yes25c407.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf804…8028backed Yes17c400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c399.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9910143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7691…7af7backed Yes3c374.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a04…1993backed Yes4c343.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ae…0215backed Yes4c340.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ce…b71abacked No56c301.14$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0372…4914backed Yes26c272.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes8c260.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes11c251.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes9c244.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca7…9567backed Yes19c236.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.71825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes28c207.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.152352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes45c199.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.591145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes43c188.73$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes34c164.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.66425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa564…6085backed Yes26c160.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4d…160cbacked Yes33c152.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac9c…19c8backed Yes13c150.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No60c148.92$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6313…246dbacked Yes21c144.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de7…2387backed Yes9c140$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…fa57backed Yes16c128.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.19825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b49…caa7backed Yes8c127.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a52…3e04backed No78c110.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes19c107.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No77c103.74$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.355479.6%43 W · 11 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c98.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9731439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x222c…c88fbacked Yes21c76.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No74c65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+62%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c64.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.045933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdefe…71acbacked Yes28c60.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes32c54.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.512128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x69fa…ce3cbacked Yes22c53.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b846backed Yes23c50.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2153…23afbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.344551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No52c32.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe572…5928backed No76c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0567…82d1backed Yes34c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd32c…d296backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.