NFL · resolved market
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50M views in its first 7 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10ca642cf60ff9f0e4b92510d2bb384658ae34c14bad704e21f589cd0a719736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $287,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a53…8ecebacked Yes | 0c | 40,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…d2bdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…e86abacked Yes | 1c | 15,006$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692d…2f47backed Yes | 0c | 10,233$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…41ddbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…40e7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…3c6ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,241$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 3c | 3,254$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,075$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed Yes | 10c | 2,025$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…00aebacked Yes | 6c | 1,973$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,256$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 3c | 1,045$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 961.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 930$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 896.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed Yes | 5c | 824.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…23eebacked Yes | 2c | 819.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 777.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…b848backed Yes | 2c | 642.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 584.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 541.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 4c | 512.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…ae72backed Yes | 7c | 451.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5f8bbacked Yes | 3c | 443.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 6c | 432.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 3c | 403.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…9dd3backed Yes | 14c | 401.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 358.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53f…9c9ebacked Yes | 4c | 349.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 5c | 341.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Yes | 7c | 269.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…631dbacked Yes | 6c | 243.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 6c | 215.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…5ddfbacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50M views in its first 7 days?this page
- Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 150M views in its first 7 days?No won
- Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?No won
- Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125M and 150M views in its first 7 days?No won
- Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M and 75M views in its first 7 days?No won
- Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?Yes won
- Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video not be posted?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.