AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950867d014f5554e58dd351ccee33fe8a970244db9f849715658ff6ec3edf3b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 26c | 19,329$5,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,254.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…c45bbacked No | 27c | 13,164$3,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,616.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Yes | 1c | 11,038$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…545cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,909$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…bef1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…09dbbacked Yes | 72c | 8,747$6,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,326.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 75c | 8,655$6,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,517.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 75c | 8,447$6,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,337.45 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 5c | 8,071$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 28c | 7,721$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,567.93 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 70c | 4,964$3,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,463.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 1c | 4,668$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 28c | 3,665$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3a…c2c0backed Yes | 13c | 3,591$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 59c | 2,940$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.06 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Yes | 76c | 2,872$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,650$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…c003backed Yes | 2c | 2,513$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ab…6c7abacked No | 77c | 2,230$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 31c | 2,104$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.12 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…ed17backed Yes | 76c | 1,972$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 76c | 1,953$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed No | 45c | 1,860$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe024…0762backed Yes | 35c | 1,596$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…ff2fbacked No | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Yes | 25c | 1,480$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…c85abacked Yes | 71c | 1,426$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…f78abacked Yes | 38c | 1,370$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…0e27backed Yes | 4c | 1,310$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…31e6backed Yes | 19c | 1,253$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…ee83backed Yes | 35c | 1,048$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 4c | 1,030$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…84fabacked Yes | 33c | 988.9$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…1439backed Yes | 70c | 982.03$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…0878backed Yes | 3c | 867.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 3c | 799.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed Yes | 67c | 700$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…236cbacked Yes | 9c | 672.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…b3f8backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…1ae8backed Yes | 59c | 626.59$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed Yes | 68c | 624.98$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed Yes | 10c | 587.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Yes | 5c | 586.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…2726backed No | 46c | 580.56$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c86…e223backed Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 72c | 422.92$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.53 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 51c | 392.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…5242backed Yes | 17c | 365.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc297…f471backed Yes | 28c | 354.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 346.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc8…f0bbbacked Yes | 9c | 308.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 55c | 299.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 20c | 270$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 42c | 237.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…ac62backed Yes | 76c | 223.33$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…c925backed Yes | 69c | 178.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked Yes | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…5197backed Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…a707backed Yes | 12c | 153.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…8a09backed Yes | 72c | 143.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 27c | 141.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 27c | 125.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a02…daebbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 12c | 106.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 10c | 103.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…03adbacked Yes | 53c | 94.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…a981backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…e08ebacked Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…5f01backed Yes | 53c | 70.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…a1a1backed No | 75c | 59.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 77c | 57.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…99a6backed Yes | 75c | 51.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed No | 80c | 37.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122d…e728backed Yes | 49c | 23.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9f…c209backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.