AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x121ddb18cb638c42484d000ba7c09959e6957d7c3a42466df18b8fc0857fda5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,434$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 65c | 786.94$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.16 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 65c | 549.46$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.22 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed Yes | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 49c | 224$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed No | 66c | 212.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 51c | 210.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 11c | 184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 169.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…1989backed Yes | 39c | 129.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 79c | 127.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 29c | 124.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 36c | 120.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 77c | 98.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…308fbacked Yes | 37c | 91.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 56c | 89.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…09dbbacked Yes | 32c | 62.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 43c | 61.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 74c | 61.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed No | 62c | 61.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…8639backed No | 71c | 55.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…9816backed No | 66c | 54.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd575…1963backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 40c | 41.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…0c1bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…215fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb419…b6f4backed Yes | 70c | 35.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…2225backed Yes | 37c | 32.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 61c | 27.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…63c7backed No | 69c | 27.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 63c | 25.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…f92cbacked No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 63c | 22.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e3…cb1abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 62c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.