TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,274

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,267 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$106291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No63c228.26$143 inWon+$85.336659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f93…3300backed Yes47c213.34$100 inLost-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes11c199.99$22 inLost-$22785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No66c140$92 inWon+$47.671681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+101.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf920…4d4ebacked No72c138.25$100 inWon+$38.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed Yes34c99$34 inLost-$33.661957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc90…00aebacked No59c95$56 inWon+$38.851478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No51c85.35$43 inWon+$41.9911850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes27c80.11$22 inLost-$21.63205%1 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes35c64.62$22 inLost-$22.427219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes33c63.55$21 inLost-$20.9713654.4%74 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c57$23 inLost-$22.8372935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes39c50.81$20 inLost-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.4wins-0.40per pick49cpaid-88.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes42c50$21 inLost-$21714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes27c46.33$13 inLost-$12.555843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes49c40$20 inLost-$19.61315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-3.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa85…1890backed Yes39c38.56$15 inLost-$15.120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b97…36b7backed Yes66c30.45$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No60c30.12$18 inWon+$12.053151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc12…eb59backed No72c30$22 inWon+$8.41464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ce6…ed62backed Yes39c25.57$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0546…594bbacked Yes56c20$11 inLost-$11.2520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-68.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No64c20$13 inWon+$7.224955.1%27 W · 22 L+6.3wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x30f7…f224backed No55c20$11 inWon+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…fa10backed No68c15$10 inWon+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No69c14.97$10 inWon+$4.6714355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.