AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4192816e5df31bfd2afa33a9770740c5855c2098218905e19da3e53adde0783a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 65c | 1,045$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.05 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,020$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 2c | 683.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc98…eae2backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 183.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 66c | 178.67$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 75c | 157$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb419…b6f4backed Yes | 33c | 152.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 25c | 144$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 77c | 129.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…fadbbacked Yes | 34c | 121.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 67c | 119.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 21c | 111.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…29e9backed No | 79c | 106.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 33c | 75.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 28c | 53.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 29c | 50.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 45.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 42.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 33c | 39.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…e82ebacked Yes | 56c | 36.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…ae43backed No | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…e42abacked No | 76c | 29.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…0af4backed No | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…236fbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 74c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.