AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78eb72cb2de4d0f80423c5a23679275d535006ebe728db2b552880ca58c5f5d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 0c | 5,027$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 26c | 4,572$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,367.48 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 43c | 1,705$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.77 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 28c | 1,682$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.01 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…9a97backed Yes | 60c | 1,614$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 26c | 1,500$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.26 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked Yes | 73c | 1,382$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…ed9abacked Yes | 78c | 1,005$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 31c | 1,000$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.66 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…6f4dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…1ad5backed Yes | 72c | 981.62$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 924.11$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.16 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 75c | 922.1$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 58c | 870.23$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.57 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 73c | 835.02$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.6 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 41c | 769.91$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.74 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 23c | 708.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.76 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…9b3bbacked No | 33c | 644.29$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 18c | 633.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.79 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa7…e0afbacked Yes | 72c | 549.63$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…ff2fbacked No | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 29c | 435.13$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.04 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…3344backed Yes | 76c | 420$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked No | 17c | 414.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3300backed Yes | 79c | 378.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed No | 38c | 354.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 62c | 331.31$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 23c | 308$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.4 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…b402backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…013cbacked Yes | 73c | 280$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…cf2dbacked Yes | 73c | 274.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…2af3backed Yes | 70c | 257.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed No | 34c | 243.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed No | 32c | 239.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.69 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c24…ae45backed No | 24c | 235.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 40c | 230$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…e177backed Yes | 68c | 229.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 77c | 200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…2cb2backed Yes | 76c | 200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…373ebacked Yes | 73c | 188.11$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 62c | 170$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc8…f0bbbacked No | 34c | 156.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…c85abacked Yes | 66c | 151.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Yes | 71c | 141.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…a859backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1087…8f8dbacked Yes | 76c | 139$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…4bacbacked Yes | 75c | 132.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…55acbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 72c | 117$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 108.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3111backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…cfddbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 22c | 99.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…77abbacked Yes | 78c | 96.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 76c | 95.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 74c | 85.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6c…72b8backed No | 25c | 80.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 34c | 79.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 62c | 78.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1493…5fb5backed Yes | 70c | 76.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0820backed No | 31c | 76.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…3366backed Yes | 73c | 75.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…5c47backed Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…1283backed Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…f92cbacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…df4ebacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 27c | 65.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…1419backed Yes | 76c | 65.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked No | 37c | 64.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…7473backed Yes | 77c | 64.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x575c…a6a5backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +226.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…73adbacked No | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 70c | 57.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.40per pick | 49cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 57.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceef…ec6dbacked No | 27c | 56.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +273.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…4487backed Yes | 77c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 52c | 53.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…53babacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…e41dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…b1b3backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 29c | 48.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133d…cb66backed Yes | 78c | 47.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 46.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dd…1ef5backed Yes | 71c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…2dbebacked Yes | 69c | 42.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…9022backed No | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0968…5c59backed Yes | 72c | 41.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…baa3backed Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.