TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,936
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,936 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8996…9c76backed Yes21c333$70 inLost-$69.932334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked No80c167$133 inWon+$34.111020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb50c…8c30backed Yes20c161$32 inLost-$32.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No67c130$88 inWon+$42.316659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed No79c130$103 inWon+$27.31442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No79c109$86 inWon+$22.892733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No70c108.8$76 inWon+$32.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes35c100$35 inLost-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed No79c100$79 inWon+$211540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes21c100$21 inLost-$21911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-83%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd320…81a5backed No79c94$74 inWon+$19.74683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+74.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes21c85.97$18 inLost-$17.97219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed No71c80$57 inWon+$22.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6284…6e40backed Yes31c63.57$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No65c57.14$37 inWon+$203647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e7…e194backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No80c39$31 inWon+$7.81681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+101.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x59c2…de58backed No64c31.25$20 inWon+$11.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes54c30$16 inLost-$16.22722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133d…cb66backed Yes34c29.76$10 inLost-$10.1640%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No80c26$21 inWon+$5.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-48.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc90…00aebacked No65c20$13 inWon+$71478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No68c14.99$10 inWon+$4.814355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.