AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa00b1bf11612fbd9cc9eb85900631c677aab4fc6a23011b386ea63cb51e6112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes | 35c | 1,312$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 65c | 904.77$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.67 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…4069backed Yes | 37c | 689.61$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +177.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 60c | 611.07$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.09 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 38c | 490.48$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed No | 59c | 455$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 59c | 435.87$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.33 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…0099backed Yes | 30c | 399.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 67c | 393$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 32c | 352.82$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 67c | 350$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 71c | 241.02$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…3d49backed Yes | 44c | 225.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…81f6backed Yes | 37c | 211$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…f78abacked Yes | 42c | 200.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 69c | 153.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 70c | 143.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 35c | 120.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa181…91ecbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 109.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…fadbbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…0448backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…2813backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4099…bbf5backed Yes | 45c | 80.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 34c | 76.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed No | 68c | 73.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…f92cbacked No | 79c | 63.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 63.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dd…1ef5backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 64c | 57.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 72c | 57.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…a384backed Yes | 38c | 52.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…b801backed Yes | 46c | 44.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…b667backed Yes | 46c | 43.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…1263backed Yes | 35c | 42.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 61c | 41.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 36c | 37.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…5a39backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…d40bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 62c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…d3d8backed Yes | 45c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2356…70b2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2505…f94fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…bcc6backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…c307backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 66c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…ae43backed No | 70c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.